| Author |
Topic Search Topic Options
|
Brandmeister
Postmaster General
Joined: 12 Oct 2012
Location: Laoshin
Status: Offline
Points: 2396
|
Posted: 02 Nov 2013 at 02:55 |
Angrim wrote:
replacement rate matters in a long conflict more than size, which is why land can be a better proxy for military strength in some situations--even better than actual troop count. but the real measure over time is how many players leave one's alliance via fatigue or disgust. |
Production (non-farmstead) sov is a decent measure of military production capacity. City size correlates to a certain point, assuming that the city is at about 65% taxes, which means it cannot be over-sized. City size is better representative of what the standing forces might be available prior to a war, and production sov is a better representative for replacement rate. If the war runs long, players will need large stockpiles of gold and items to rebuild units. That implies a good supply from support accounts and perma-sat accounts on the sidelines. Bigger, older alliances probably tend to have more farm accounts and bigger stockpiles. Angrim is right. Alliance factors like clustering, endurance, coordination, and sheer determination are important. Obviously experience with tournaments and sieges helps a lot, too. It's tough to know the fighting abilities of the player except by reputation. There's no good way to look at the numbers between two alliances and make a superficial judgement. However (and it's a big however), you can look through the individual players' cities and immediately get a feel for whether they know how to fight. You'll know it when you see it. 7-10 cities, all around 15-20k population, a few Farmstead V adjacent to each, and then 12-15x sov II. Often they will have claimed several +1-3% boost tiles for a particular unit type, occasionally outside the usual circle-square pattern, and the organized ones will have intentionally put their city near multiple bonus boost squares. Their cities will be placed on mostly plains, where friendly cavalry can rescue them from attack. Some players have have terraformed 7 food mountains. If you leaf through the 50k-150k population players and see a tight clustering of cities like that, with the players having medium-high attack and defense scores, that's a good indicator that particular alliance might have some serious punch.
|
 |
Vanerin
Forum Warrior
Joined: 05 Oct 2011
Status: Offline
Points: 418
|
Posted: 02 Nov 2013 at 00:56 |
Excellent post Angrim. Thank you.
~Vanerin
|
 |
Qaal
Wordsmith
Joined: 29 Jan 2011
Status: Offline
Points: 115
|
Posted: 02 Nov 2013 at 00:56 |
Kumomoto wrote:
Fine. Population to military/gold isn't directly linear. But the simple fact remains that 100 player alliances with much higher population are far far more likely to have more troops than 20 player alliances with much lower population. # of accts absolutely has a direct effect on troop potential in an alliance.
|
Just to add one more wrinkle to the size/military effectiveness question, I think spread on the map is one of the more underrated aspects of military effectiveness. From that perspective, Tcol would be a nightmare to try to attack. "Only" 61 players, but decent average player size and absolutely fabulous focus on the map. Trying to maintain a siege on Tcol's turf would be a grizzly affair.
Of course, the trade off is that influence on the far-flung parts of the map gets tough. But 100 players in an alliance isn't enough to ride herd on all of Elgea, no matter who you are. Spread too thin. Not sure what the optimum numbers of player hubs would really be in order to cover as much map as possible. But hats off to Tcol--their security looks as strong to me as any group going.
|
 |
Angrim
Postmaster General
Joined: 02 Nov 2011
Location: Laoshin
Status: Offline
Points: 1173
|
Posted: 02 Nov 2013 at 00:41 |
|
there is no mathematical way to determine what is a "fair" fight. larger armies can still be defeated by bad deployment, replacement rate matters in a long conflict more than size, which is why land can be a better proxy for military strength in some situations--even better than actual troop count. but the real measure over time is how many players leave one's alliance via fatigue or disgust. cohesiveness, for which illy does not publish a statistic, may be the single most important force influencing the outcome of an extended conflict, and lack of interest is the only way to eliminate a player.
i've no idea why anyone would expect an alliance or confederation to choose a fair (by which i think we mean balanced) fight. in a perfectly fair fight, each side has an equal chance to win. part of the game is positioning oneself for advantage; in a fair fight, to paraphrase Innoble, neither side has done its work. to consider only population is inaccurate, but also unrealistic. H? did not stay its hand against St Jude in spite of his alliance's small size, nor did anyone expect them to. he was deliberately provocative. the alliances at war with NC feel that they were also provoked. i would not expect population to be a factor in either case.
but since the concern of a fair fight has been raised, consider this: both sides have expressed a certainty that they will win. if the opponents are so evenly matched that they are both confident of victory, that is as near a fair fight as i can measure.
|
 |
Hora
Postmaster
Joined: 10 May 2010
Status: Offline
Points: 839
|
Posted: 01 Nov 2013 at 23:35 |
twilights wrote:
i think it all comes down to how crazy u are and how much u drink...maybe how good ur sex life is too...all these have the same importance and the proper mixture just makes u a terror in war....wheres my 40...i going all gangster
|
.../me takes out calc... hm... along those factors twilights has very good odds indeed 
...explosive mixture, so to say 
|
 |
twilights
Postmaster
Joined: 21 May 2012
Status: Offline
Points: 915
|
Posted: 01 Nov 2013 at 23:31 |
|
i think it all comes down to how crazy u are and how much u drink...maybe how good ur sex life is too...all these have the same importance and the proper mixture just makes u a terror in war....wheres my 40...i going all gangster
|
 |
Hora
Postmaster
Joined: 10 May 2010
Status: Offline
Points: 839
|
Posted: 01 Nov 2013 at 23:21 |
There might be non (or lesser) militaristic alliances not living at maximum troop numbers for their size... just saying...
But yes, potential is at the side of more pop... it's up to the players to use it or not, and not my role to estimate military strenght in numbers.
The only thing to count for, is the answer to the question: "Would I like/dare to fight against them?" And the answer is different depending on oh so many factors... 
Edited by Hora - 01 Nov 2013 at 23:26
|
 |
Kumomoto
Postmaster General
Joined: 19 Oct 2009
Status: Offline
Points: 2224
|
Posted: 01 Nov 2013 at 21:07 |
|
Fine. Population to military/gold isn't directly linear. But the simple fact remains that 100 player alliances with much higher population are far far more likely to have more troops than 20 player alliances with much lower population. # of accts absolutely has a direct effect on troop potential in an alliance.
|
 |
Deranzin
Postmaster
Joined: 10 Oct 2011
Status: Offline
Points: 845
|
Posted: 01 Nov 2013 at 20:40 |
Vanerin wrote:
This is probably a bit off topic, but this "Seriously dude, he who has more population CAN have more gold income " is inaccurate. I ran some numbers and found that you can have waaay more gold production at 18K than at 25K (assuming average sov options). Hmm, notice how players like Sir Bradly don't have cities larger than "Sprawling Cities"? |
This is a reply for both of you.  The correct and maybe most accurate thing to write about population and gold is that there is a direct mathematic connection between it and the max gold generated and, yes indeed, it is not directly proportionate (nor linear) all the way but it peaks at some point (which exactly is a large discussion) and then drops off, but not by THAT much. So I just thought to keep it is simple since we seem to have troubles in these forums in agreeing on simplier things than that.  So, yes, the OPTIMAL gold is not at the maximum population, BUT the usual convention of the whole server as long as I remember is exactly this. More pop=more gold=more troops and H? didn't create that idea, so noone can blame a particular alliance for a server-wide convention, even if it is not 100% accurate. And that is my point. Pointing fingers and blaming an old game convention on a particular alliance is imho a silly errant. Now, back to the other thing, imho the innaccuracy of that convention is on the level that you cannot compare alliances with small population difference, BUT when things go on a different scale you can safely claim that an alliance with 1.5x or double the population of another one, can (or should have been able to) field more troops than the smaller one. Agree or disagree .?.
|
 |
Vanerin
Forum Warrior
Joined: 05 Oct 2011
Status: Offline
Points: 418
|
Posted: 01 Nov 2013 at 19:43 |
This is probably a bit off topic, but this " Seriously dude, he who has more population CAN have more gold income " is inaccurate. I ran some numbers and found that you can have waaay more gold production at 18K than at 25K (assuming average sov options). Hmm, notice how players like Sir Bradly don't have cities larger than "Sprawling Cities"?
Also physics indicates that a heavier person will be more likely to win a fight. But numbers like that do not account for what the weight (or population) is made up of. 200 pounds of muscle is very different than 200 pounds of blubber.
Only considering population for military strength is inaccurate and misguiding. But finding a way to measure military strength is not what this thread really is about.
~Vanerin
|
 |