War predictions

Before I go on, I want to make it clear that I do not know the success rate of these sieges outsides of the ones that VICX have executed. I can only conclude that the success rate of sieges is larger than 0, and less than 100%. 

It seems that the Coalition is not breaking the sieges against them as effectively as predicted. And they certainly are not coordinating the large scale offensive that we have come to expect from them. I am left to theorize why this is so. 

Beyond this point is pure speculation on my behalf. I have little to no evidence to support these wild theories of mind. 

I believe after suffering a few major troop losses early on, the Coalition (or maybe just Harmless?) have entered a "bunker down" mentality. I believe they are currently stockpiling troops as if they are in a cold war. They are accepting certain losses, trying to mitigate total loss of players cities through diplomacy, being highly tactical in their deployment of troops, and building like crazy. I wouldn't be surprised if some of their cities have 200% + build times on archers. 

I believe they are building a massive army while their opponents become comfortable with their current troop levels. Their highly tactical troop deployments is to reduce catapults and troops of their enemies with the best kill/death ratio possible. They are in essence whittling down their enemies while building something larger and faster than their opposition. 

Early on many players from both sides predicted this would be a war of attrition. A very long war that would last longer than any war before. I believe the current phase is only the beginning. Infact this might be categorized as the high point of the Allied forces. 

I am predicting that once the Coalition has amassed a large enough army. 10,000,000 t2 archers maybe? 100 million? I'm not forsure how "large" large is to them. But once they've meet that goal, we will see the Coalition take the offensive. 

Their first strike with such an army will be on a large mountain in the heartland of one of their enemies territories. This will be to give them the largest and strongest kill/death ratio possible, and to encourage allied forces to attack archers on a large mountain. 

It is clear that the current losses are acceptable to both sides, as no alliance has entered negotiations as far as I know. This can only mean one thing; Winter is coming.