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Trade Improvements 2

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Brandmeister View Drop Down
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    Posted: 11 Feb 2015 at 23:51
I have offered my observations as a trader. Good day.
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ajqtrz View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote ajqtrz Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 11 Feb 2015 at 22:10
Brandmesiter So hubs are active and you had to do a lot of work to figure out which ones are and which are not and we should just take your word for it?  But it does seem to me that if you were to share that information we would all be able to increase our trading because we wouldn't have to send everything to Centrum.  Of course we could all do, as you have done, build a lot of traders and send them out as scouts so we can find out what you found out, and maybe in the spirit of competition that's a good idea.  But since you are basing your position on the evidence you have gathered, I'm not sure in the spirit  of fair debate you shouldn't share that information.  Sort of reminds me of McCarthy saying "I have right here in my briefcase proof that Communist have infiltrated to the highest levels of our government"  then refusing to share that info for "national security reasons."  Of course, thankfully the seriousness of this information you possess isn't nearly like that...but still, same principle.  If you make a claim based on certain evidence you should be willing to put forth that evidence, that's just plain how things are done when you enter into a debate.

If I've over-generalized your position, I apologize, but it still seems to me you are arguing for a centralized market because a centralized market offers more contact points between buyers and sellers than having those points distributed across all of the hubs.  This makes sense to me as well.  However, it is, I think, a short sighted approach as if the contact points were more evenly distributed they would remain the same number or more as more people would actually become traders (not needing to be close to Centrum to do so would encourage this, I believe) and the time it takes to actually deliver goods drops.  

As for the "churn" theory,  denying it does not make it false.  The logic of doing more transactions more quickly simply means more opportunities for profit.  Thus, it is to a players benefit to distribute at least the more common items across the entire hub network.  If I had your information I might be able to show that this is false under the current case because of some statistical anomalies or something, but since I don't we have reached the point of saying: "Is too!" "Is Not!"  It doesn't stand to reason to me that more transactions spread across a larger geographic area would result in less trade.  But your secret numbers tell otherwise?

As for the crafted items, their centralization in Centrum is not the problem, as I have stated elsewhere, it's that the value of the crafted item is so low it is seldom used...or to put it another way, crafted items do not have enough use value to make owning them particularly rewarding.  Thus, they appear worth a lot but are not central to the game.  This is reflected in my first post on trading.

Finally, you say that "there are situations where it makes sense to have particular markets be centralized" and then go on to list everything except for basic resources which, it seems to me, are very seldom actually bought and sold, but are distributed more because it's easier and faster to deliver them to people from a distributed network.  Again, though, I don't have your numbers to examine this assumption.  What I'm wondering is,  since hubs are used for both storage and distribution and for trade, what items, if any, do you think would benefit being traded on a more distributed basis?

Aj
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Brandmeister Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 11 Feb 2015 at 02:00
Sorry. It took me a lot of time and effort to determine which local hubs are active. I am not publishing the hubs where I trade, the items that I trade, or the amounts that I trade. Most hubs are used for storage--which I think is a completely reasonable use model--and knowing the truly active ones is valuable information. Maybe you can get one of the big shot traders to tell you where they are, otherwise you will have to invest the time just like I did. I am certainly not just going to publish that knowledge on the forums so lazy traders can come and compete with me.

As to your theory, I will clarify something yet again:

Originally posted by ajqtrz ajqtrz wrote:

The key question is: is trading in Illy too centralized in Centrum. You say "no" because trading is centralized in Centrum.
That is a gross misrepresentation of what I said. There are situations where it makes sense to have particular markets be centralized. Crafted items is one. Boutique markets are almost always centralized in one location, and Centrum has become the de facto crafted item bazaar. The volume is too small and the items too specialized to be offered all over the map to local audiences. Bulk advanced items might be another one, or at least it is unsurprising that there would be one main exchange and a few major satellites. Basic resources is categorically NOT one of those situations. That is clearly reflected in many Elgea hubs where construction materials are aggregated and re-sold.

You have not made a compelling case for why more distributed trading would be attractive. I don't buy the churn theory. This isn't a game of lightning fast transactions. Even if it were, a few points of prestige can double or quadruple caravan speeds. Many markets are dead because people don't want to buy and sell items there, and that has very little to do with distance. Where people are willing to trade, the real traders of this game are often found.

Centrum is by far the biggest active hub in Elgea. There are some good reasons for that. But it definitely isn't the only active hub, not by a long shot. And in many respects, it isn't even the most interesting one. Every day my inbox has a few dozen notifications from profitable transactions conducted all over the map, and that's an average day, and depends on what I'm currently buying and selling. I have 7 traders out there, and no orders in hubs where I don't have a trader. Hedgor's Haven is one, Centrum is another. Two traders are presently touring the Broken Lands. My customers know where the other three are.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote ajqtrz Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 10 Feb 2015 at 23:25
One more thing.  In re-readying your response Brandmesiter, I do think you are correct that it would be good to use empirical evidence to determine the rate of trade per hub and compare that with Centrum.  You seem to have those numbers.  Could you send them to me?

My "empirical" numbers are limited to: 1) about 4-5 hubs I've sent a trader to and found nothing there...except perhaps Hope Ridge.  Maybe I hit the 4-5 hubs that have nothing in them and the rest are thriving and vibrant; and 2) the anecdotal evidence I've see here and in speaking with other players...albeit only about a dozen or so.  But, it must be said, of those with whom I have spoken, pretty close to all agree with me that hubs away from Centrum are under utilized as trading hubs.   But we can certainly settle this with your empirical data, so do share.

Thanks
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote ajqtrz Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 10 Feb 2015 at 23:19
I agree with most of what you say, Brandmeister, but the fact that things trade better in Centrum is only proof that Centrum dominates the trade and is the central hub for trade.  My point is that if you wish to increase the distribution of trade so that more players can do more trades faster (distance determines the "churn" of trade) you need to distribute the trade system and balance it out more.

As for the trade of crafted items it's the same story....Centrum is where they are traded so Centrum is where they are traded...little incentive to trade them anywhere else other than distance.  But traders who take several days to send vans either direction will be at t severe disadvantage over those who can turn their vans around in a couple hours.  This is what churn is all about for traders...trade fast and trade often.  If we leave all the trading in Centrum we end up with everybody who wants to really be a trader needing to congregate around Centrum.

Finally, the trading of crafted items is, I think, pretty low for reasons I put in my first post on  trading.

Finally, if the race car driver  vs mechanic is a straman argument then so is the 16 yr old driver one.  A 16yr old driver can analyze why his dad got a ticket when his dad blew through a stop sign.  A 16yr old non-driver can do the same.  Knowing how something works does not mean you have to have done it...though knowing how it works makes you better able to do it when you actually do it.  Since you do it you do show some good ideas.  Just apply, as you did in your second response, those ideas to the question at hand and let's ignore the qualifications of the speaker since they are irrelevant to the point being made.

The key question is: is trading in Illy too centralized in Centrum.  You say "no" because trading is centralized in Centrum.  I say "yes" because if we move to distribute it across the entire area we increase the rate of trades as the average trader can reach an active hub more quickly and thus make more trades faster.

Again, thanks for the thoughtful answer.  You've help clarify the question and maybe my own understanding as well.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dungshoveleux Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 08 Feb 2015 at 00:53
Hubs are used way more for storage than trade.
This presumably explains why there are so many of them.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Brandmeister Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 07 Feb 2015 at 13:07
It makes sense to concentrate crafted items sales in Centrum. The armaments are so specialized that you need exposure to all potential buyers. It also makes sense to trade the rare materials in the same place where the final products are traded. The items are very small and can be handled with a caravan or three, so distance isn't a factor.

To me it also seems natural to trade bulk weapons and armor in Centrum (the ordinary, non-crafted stuff for building troops). Again, the items are easily portable, so Centrum offers the most exposure to buyers and sellers. There are several other popular hubs where these items can be sold, and they can also sell well in town-to-town orders. Here the trader is offering convenience, of either shorter distance local purchasing from a nearby hub, or the ability to prestige boost the incoming purchase items. These trades do quite well during wars and tournaments. I would note that Centrum visibility may have badly damaged this particular hub trade method. It used to be that a player could only see Centrum from one city with a trader. Now if they have prestige to burn, they can purchase from all of their cities, removing the single-city caravan bottleneck, and lowering the incentive to use slightly more expensive local hubs for advanced resources.

Basic resources are too large to ship over large distances in any economical fashion. There is a good trade for basics all over Elgea, particularly in the new player ring. New players don't have the shipping capacity to send all the way to Centrum for basic resources, so local trades can do well in their areas. Probably the biggest limiting factor is that they don't have the gold to spend. However, all over the map, there are hubs with a large volume of bulk basic resource sales and a long transaction ledger.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Corwin Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 07 Feb 2015 at 08:56
My experience is that there is very little advanced resource trade outside Centrum but I don't really see it as a problem. I used to have buy offers for brown bear fur all across Elgea, in 5 0r 6 different trade hubs. In Centrum I offered 200-500 gold/fur less then in the other hubs. The offers in Centrum were filled within 2 weeks but the offers in all other hubs were still open when I moved my traders to broken lands.
On the other hand, sell offers of basic resources and weapons/armor were doing great outside Centrum. The thing is, imo, that tradehubs are mainly here to trade the stuff you can't trade town to town and there is very hardly any of that outside Centrum in my experience.  
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Brandmeister Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 07 Feb 2015 at 01:54
Originally posted by Rill Rill wrote:

There are people who find it delightful to set hub orders and shuttle things back and forth to fulfill demand at various locations.  

That's basically trading in a nutshell. Buy low, sell high, wherever there is demand. Selling items you produce is manufacturing. I draw a distinction between engaging in trades and being a "trader".

I have a long list of things that needs to be improved in the user interface for trading and harvesting. I believe the concept is a good one for a fantasy game, but that most functions were a bolt-on instead of a truly integrated experience. Additionally, most interfaces were designed around single transactions, and were not really built to manage a "pro" level of trade volume.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Rill Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 07 Feb 2015 at 01:27
Personally I think the main reason that trade is centralized in Centrum is that hub trade is sort of tedious and complicated.  I don't do hub trade when I can avoid it, and I wouldn't want to trade at a lot of hubs and repeat the process over and over.  Now, I am not a super active trader.  There are people who find it delightful to set hub orders and shuttle things back and forth to fulfill demand at various locations.  I probably would not be one of those people even if trade were not as cumbersome as it is.

However, I think that the people who find a lot of joy in the mechanics of trade are in the minority.  For most people, trade is a way to make extra gold through selling what they have too much of, or get stuff they don't have enough of, rather than an end in itself.  The people who are looking for simplicity prefer the "Wal-Mart" of Centrum rather than the downtown shopping district of local hubs.

One solution would be to eliminate the trade visibility restrictions.  Make it so everyone can see every hub everywhere, or at least every hub on their continent, or for a much wider area (say 1000 squares).  I think this simple change would actually INCREASE the activity in at least some local hubs, since people would be weighing convenience over price and selection.  It would especially benefit sellers who essentially would be able to reach a wider audience.

If this were done, it might be necessary to make the trade interface a little more robust, especially when looking for offers on the market, such as to only show offers within x squares or only at a selection of hubs, etc.

Ideally it might be useful to have different visibilities for different goods.  For example "bulk" goods like basic resources could be limited to local hubs and Centrum.  Other goods could have wider visibilities.

Just some thoughts.
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