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Grainne 
Greenhorn 
Joined: 23 May 2011 Location: US Status: Offline Points: 96 |
 Topic: Tourney Score 5 Day Linear ExtrapolationPosted: 20 Oct 2012 at 04:40 |
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No, I didn't know that! Congrats!
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Silverlake
Forum Warrior 
Joined: 15 Oct 2011 Status: Offline Points: 417 |
Posted: 20 Oct 2012 at 01:41 |
You are more than welcome Grainne, as you may know I took first place in my league in tourney #4 and throughly enjoyed working with my alliance to win tourney #5, it is with a heavy heart I can not compete in this tourney, but my mission to clean Illy of bullies calls me away. Take care
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The_Dude
Postmaster General 
Joined: 06 Apr 2010 Location: Texas Status: Offline Points: 2396 |
Posted: 20 Oct 2012 at 00:18 |
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This tourney will have an asterisks next to the results indicating a "players' strike due to wars."
Edited by The_Dude - 20 Oct 2012 at 00:18 |
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Grainne
Greenhorn
Joined: 23 May 2011 Location: US Status: Offline Points: 96 |
Posted: 19 Oct 2012 at 23:41 |
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Thank you Silverlake; odd as it may sound, I wish more were competing in the tournament....
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Silverlake
Forum Warrior
Joined: 15 Oct 2011 Status: Offline Points: 417 |
Posted: 19 Oct 2012 at 23:12 |
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I wish all those competing in the tournament GOOD LUCK
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allamagoosa
Greenhorn
Joined: 17 Jul 2012 Location: California, USA Status: Offline Points: 78 |
Posted: 19 Oct 2012 at 21:47 |
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Nothing like that at all. This was the most basic of extrapolation. I simply calculated the average slope of the line over 2 days and projected a line 5 days into the future based off of that slope.
As someone else indicated earlier this sort of extrapolation in this type of scenario has very large error bars for anything more then a couple of days out. I really did it more to start a discussion and start to think about what can be done. Cheers, -A |
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Sisren
Forum Warrior
Joined: 03 Feb 2012 Location: PA, USA Status: Offline Points: 446 |
Posted: 19 Oct 2012 at 20:14 |
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A 3 period moving average may give a greater degree of confidence in the trends. Are you taking the average of period 0, -1, -2 and comparing to period -1, -2, -3 for the trending (can give an indication of a trend is in ascension or descent)?
Also, are you taking into account the alliances at war, and not in the tournament?
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Loud Whispers
Wordsmith
Joined: 31 Jul 2012 Location: Saltmines Status: Offline Points: 196 |
Posted: 19 Oct 2012 at 18:51 |
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Mogul
Forum Warrior
Joined: 23 Sep 2011 Status: Offline Points: 233 |
Posted: 19 Oct 2012 at 18:21 |
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As we where forced out of tournament my casualties summaries are no more used. But maybe for those still participating, this can be interesting (especially compared with previous tournament casualties):
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dunnoob
Postmaster 
Joined: 10 Dec 2011 Location: Elijal Status: Offline Points: 800 |
Posted: 19 Oct 2012 at 16:47 |
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Let's see some B-splines.
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Tourney Score 5 Day Linear Extrapolation
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Grainne wrote: