Tourney Score 5 Day Linear Extrapolation

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The following chart was created with data extracted from the graph (so I had to pick out the numbers by eye) and plotted in excel.

I calculated a simple average 2 day average of that data and used it to project 5 days into the future.

-A

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allamagoosa Members Profile Send Private Message Find Members Posts Add to Buddy List Greenhorn Joined: 17 Jul 2012 Location: California, USA Status: Offline Points: 78	Topic: Tourney Score 5 Day Linear Extrapolation Posted: 17 Oct 2012 at 15:52
	The following chart was created with data extracted from the graph (so I had to pick out the numbers by eye) and plotted in excel. I calculated a simple average 2 day average of that data and used it to project 5 days into the future. -A

Arakamis Members Profile Send Private Message Find Members Posts Add to Buddy List Greenhorn Joined: 09 Jul 2012 Location: Waterdeep Status: Offline Points: 97	Posted: 17 Oct 2012 at 17:00
	ooohh another nerd like me.. :) nice job mate.. ;)

Grainne Members Profile Send Private Message Find Members Posts Add to Buddy List Greenhorn Joined: 23 May 2011 Location: US Status: Offline Points: 96	Posted: 17 Oct 2012 at 17:03
	Ah...but you'll have some more data....soon.....


Albatross Members Profile Send Private Message Find Members Posts Add to Buddy List Postmaster General Joined: 11 May 2011 Status: Offline Points: 1118	Posted: 18 Oct 2012 at 01:30
	Heh, have a good look at the rules, run some numbers, and try to model that. It will be enlightening ;o)


The_Dude Members Profile Send Private Message Find Members Posts Add to Buddy List Postmaster General Joined: 06 Apr 2010 Location: Texas Status: Offline Points: 2396	Posted: 18 Oct 2012 at 04:23
	I fail to see any utility to a 5 day linear projection.

allamagoosa Members Profile Send Private Message Find Members Posts Add to Buddy List Greenhorn Joined: 17 Jul 2012 Location: California, USA Status: Offline Points: 78	Posted: 19 Oct 2012 at 13:09
	Well then I will just have to make you a 6 day graph. -A

Rorgash Members Profile Send Private Message Find Members Posts Add to Buddy List Postmaster Joined: 23 Aug 2011 Status: Offline Points: 894	Posted: 19 Oct 2012 at 13:28
	so you did what extend the lines in the angle they were going and you say you predicted things? considering that in one day you can easily lose half you soul income and start dropping, and is happening back and forth, i would with some certainty say that your prediction will most likely be incorrect.

Rorgash Members Profile Send Private Message Find Members Posts Add to Buddy List Postmaster Joined: 23 Aug 2011 Status: Offline Points: 894	Posted: 19 Oct 2012 at 13:30
	also after taking a look at the IG graph, i see the straight line being completely off as Crows skyrocketed up and didn't go smoothly.

allamagoosa Members Profile Send Private Message Find Members Posts Add to Buddy List Greenhorn Joined: 17 Jul 2012 Location: California, USA Status: Offline Points: 78	Posted: 19 Oct 2012 at 15:56
	I don't disagree the prediction will be off. Most extrapolations are. Especially when they are based on only a couple of days of data and certainly in cases like this where things are very dynamic. If you read my original post you won't see any claim regarding error bars on the extrapolation and I described what I did to come up with the graph. -A

dunnoob Members Profile Send Private Message Find Members Posts Add to Buddy List Postmaster Joined: 10 Dec 2011 Location: Elijal Status: Offline Points: 800	Posted: 19 Oct 2012 at 16:47
	Let's see some B-splines.