War predictions

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   Just wanted to share one of my theories about where the current war is heading. For the past several weeks I have been monitoring the Herald siege page, and it has indicated that The Coaliation is receiving MANY more sieges than they are dishing out. 

Before I go on, I want to make it clear that I do not know the success rate of these sieges outsides of the ones that VICX have executed. I can only conclude that the success rate of sieges is larger than 0, and less than 100%. 

It seems that the Coalition is not breaking the sieges against them as effectively as predicted. And they certainly are not coordinating the large scale offensive that we have come to expect from them. I am left to theorize why this is so. 

Beyond this point is pure speculation on my behalf. I have little to no evidence to support these wild theories of mind. 

I believe after suffering a few major troop losses early on, the Coalition (or maybe just Harmless?) have entered a "bunker down" mentality. I believe they are currently stockpiling troops as if they are in a cold war. They are accepting certain losses, trying to mitigate total loss of players cities through diplomacy, being highly tactical in their deployment of troops, and building like crazy. I wouldn't be surprised if some of their cities have 200% + build times on archers. 

I believe they are building a massive army while their opponents become comfortable with their current troop levels. Their highly tactical troop deployments is to reduce catapults and troops of their enemies with the best kill/death ratio possible. They are in essence whittling down their enemies while building something larger and faster than their opposition. 

Early on many players from both sides predicted this would be a war of attrition. A very long war that would last longer than any war before. I believe the current phase is only the beginning. Infact this might be categorized as the high point of the Allied forces. 

I am predicting that once the Coalition has amassed a large enough army. 10,000,000 t2 archers maybe? 100 million? I'm not forsure how "large" large is to them. But once they've meet that goal, we will see the Coalition take the offensive. 

Their first strike with such an army will be on a large mountain in the heartland of one of their enemies territories. This will be to give them the largest and strongest kill/death ratio possible, and to encourage allied forces to attack archers on a large mountain. 

It is clear that the current losses are acceptable to both sides, as no alliance has entered negotiations as far as I know. This can only mean one thing; Winter is coming. 

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geofrey Members Profile Send Private Message Find Members Posts Add to Buddy List Postmaster General Joined: 31 May 2011 Status: Offline Points: 1013	Post Options Post Reply Quote geofrey Report Post Thanks(0) Quote Reply Topic: War predictions Posted: 03 Dec 2013 at 15:45
	Just wanted to share one of my theories about where the current war is heading. For the past several weeks I have been monitoring the Herald siege page, and it has indicated that The Coaliation is receiving MANY more sieges than they are dishing out. Before I go on, I want to make it clear that I do not know the success rate of these sieges outsides of the ones that VICX have executed. I can only conclude that the success rate of sieges is larger than 0, and less than 100%. It seems that the Coalition is not breaking the sieges against them as effectively as predicted. And they certainly are not coordinating the large scale offensive that we have come to expect from them. I am left to theorize why this is so. Beyond this point is pure speculation on my behalf. I have little to no evidence to support these wild theories of mind. I believe after suffering a few major troop losses early on, the Coalition (or maybe just Harmless?) have entered a "bunker down" mentality. I believe they are currently stockpiling troops as if they are in a cold war. They are accepting certain losses, trying to mitigate total loss of players cities through diplomacy, being highly tactical in their deployment of troops, and building like crazy. I wouldn't be surprised if some of their cities have 200% + build times on archers. I believe they are building a massive army while their opponents become comfortable with their current troop levels. Their highly tactical troop deployments is to reduce catapults and troops of their enemies with the best kill/death ratio possible. They are in essence whittling down their enemies while building something larger and faster than their opposition. Early on many players from both sides predicted this would be a war of attrition. A very long war that would last longer than any war before. I believe the current phase is only the beginning. Infact this might be categorized as the high point of the Allied forces. I am predicting that once the Coalition has amassed a large enough army. 10,000,000 t2 archers maybe? 100 million? I'm not forsure how "large" large is to them. But once they've meet that goal, we will see the Coalition take the offensive. Their first strike with such an army will be on a large mountain in the heartland of one of their enemies territories. This will be to give them the largest and strongest kill/death ratio possible, and to encourage allied forces to attack archers on a large mountain. It is clear that the current losses are acceptable to both sides, as no alliance has entered negotiations as far as I know. This can only mean one thing; Winter is coming.


scaramouche Members Profile Send Private Message Find Members Posts Add to Buddy List Forum Warrior Joined: 25 Apr 2011 Status: Offline Points: 432	Post Options Post Reply Quote scaramouche Report Post Thanks(0) Quote Reply Posted: 03 Dec 2013 at 16:39
	A winter of discontent.
	NO..I dont do the Fandango!

Neytiri Members Profile Send Private Message Find Members Posts Add to Buddy List Wordsmith Joined: 25 Nov 2010 Location: California Status: Offline Points: 123	Post Options Post Reply Quote Neytiri Report Post Thanks(0) Quote Reply Posted: 03 Dec 2013 at 17:59
	I made this prediction a few days ago in another thread: ----- Posted: Nov 28 2013 at 19:31 I have this prediction: Exterminating an alliance is not a just enough cause to keep people motivated to fight for the long term. (As most of you know, Illy wars can last awhile.) I thought the right to organize was a just enough cause to keep the Consone members fighting, but even that led to boredom for some members of that assembly. There's an ugly side to the concept of forcing people out of the game because you don't like the way they play. One of the nice aspects to Illyriad is the flexibility to approach it however you like. I hope, out of the respect I have for those involved, that a better justification for this conflict will eventually surface.
	"It is well that their bodies know the heat and the cold; it will make them strong warriors and mothers." - Absaroke elder (from Edward S. Curtis's book 'The North American Indian')

Tatharion Members Profile Send Private Message Find Members Posts Add to Buddy List Wordsmith Joined: 11 Jun 2012 Status: Offline Points: 139	Post Options Post Reply Quote Tatharion Report Post Thanks(0) Quote Reply Posted: 03 Dec 2013 at 18:19
	This reminds me of something quite extraordinary from RL I would like to share with you all: It is an extract from a letter sent by Staff sergeant Clement Barker four days after Christmas Day 1914: “A messenger come over from German lines and said that if (our side) did not fire, they (the Germans) wouldn’t in the morning (Xmas day).” It was agreed, and the letter goes on to give a fascinating insight into the famous, brief truce. “A German looked over the trench – no shots – our men did the same, and then a few of our men went out and brought the dead in and buried them and the next thing a football kicked out of our Trenches and Germans and English played football.” The soldiers also shared carols, shook hands and exchanged cigarettes. Sgt Barker added: “We have conversed with the Germans and they all seem to be very much fed up and heaps of them are deserting. Some have given themselves up as prisoners, so things are looking quite rosy.” At the time it was hushed up because troops weren’t supposed to fraternise with the enemy. I sincerely hope the same spirit of chivalry could be displayed in Elgea in about three weeks. Best, Tatharion Edited by Tatharion - 03 Dec 2013 at 18:39
	Be without fear in the face of your enemies. Be brave and upright, that God may love thee. Speak the truth always, even if it leads to your death. Safeguard the helpless and do no wrong.

Yeesha D'ni Members Profile Send Private Message Find Members Posts Add to Buddy List Greenhorn Joined: 21 Sep 2012 Status: Offline Points: 73	Post Options Post Reply Quote Yeesha D'ni Report Post Thanks(0) Quote Reply Posted: 03 Dec 2013 at 19:57
	@Tatherion: War went on after the so called "Weihnachtsfrieden" (which was indeed a touching event), and costed all in all 17 Million human's lives till it was ended 4 years later. The opposite to Illyriad! This is a game with PVP elements, what people tend to forget. A game and not RL. So I would appreciate to leave all this heart - melting examples out of the current war discussion. It's emotional enough, as some people seem to forget, that Illyriad is nothing more than a game.

Elmindra Members Profile Send Private Message Find Members Posts Add to Buddy List Forum Warrior Joined: 10 Sep 2012 Status: Offline Points: 464	Post Options Post Reply Quote Elmindra Report Post Thanks(0) Quote Reply Posted: 03 Dec 2013 at 21:46
	On a side note, 200% sov is fairly basic. I have seen towns with 400-700% troop sov in this war. Honestly it is a simple matter of how much gold and T2 an alliance has access to.


DeathDealer89 Members Profile Send Private Message Find Members Posts Add to Buddy List Postmaster Joined: 04 Jan 2012 Status: Offline Points: 944	Post Options Post Reply Quote DeathDealer89 Report Post Thanks(0) Quote Reply Posted: 03 Dec 2013 at 22:28
	Elmindra where did you see 700% troops sov? At 25% boost per sq for a lvl 5 you would need 28 sq's to do that. Or a city where all 20 sov sq's at +2% and they claimed lvl 5 on all of them.

Halcyon Members Profile Send Private Message Find Members Posts Add to Buddy List Forum Warrior Joined: 17 Aug 2012 Location: Israel Status: Offline Points: 360	Post Options Post Reply Quote Halcyon Report Post Thanks(0) Quote Reply Posted: 03 Dec 2013 at 22:32
	I saw a 700% troop sov. 'nough said.

Darkwords Members Profile Send Private Message Find Members Posts Add to Buddy List Postmaster General Joined: 23 May 2011 Status: Offline Points: 1005	Post Options Post Reply Quote Darkwords Report Post Thanks(0) Quote Reply Posted: 03 Dec 2013 at 22:33
	You mean H dont have that sov boosting discovery? LOL jk..... I wish.
	<Deranzin> I'd agree with darkone on that [21:59]<ropadope> you know I am perverted <Bartleby> dark is upsetting some peeps

Tatharion Members Profile Send Private Message Find Members Posts Add to Buddy List Wordsmith Joined: 11 Jun 2012 Status: Offline Points: 139	Post Options Post Reply Quote Tatharion Report Post Thanks(0) Quote Reply Posted: 03 Dec 2013 at 22:38
	Halcyon, That's a bit of a "Look on my works, ye Mighty, and despair!" type of comment. Is your middle name "Ozymandias"?
	Be without fear in the face of your enemies. Be brave and upright, that God may love thee. Speak the truth always, even if it leads to your death. Safeguard the helpless and do no wrong.