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TCol vs. Aesir War Stats

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Mafro Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 29 Jan 2018 at 16:56
A lot of good points made here.

To Grom's point that the data fluctuates, I totally agree. You need multiple data points over a period of time in order to gain confidence in whatever trend is taking place. Any given data point is fairly limited, especially if looking only at members, towns, or population, without taking into account elements such as Attack and Defense.

And that brings up TK's point, that different numbers move at different points of the war. In the RE-IRON conflict, we just saw a significant battle reflected in those numbers, though it remains to be seen if this is a tipping point in the war or along a front that can be exploited to destroy the means of production (i.e. towns).

That said, all this data is being posted publicly, so any and all are able and welcome to draw their own conclusions, and share them if they wish. If we have insights from the participants, even better, though we all realize that such insights carry with them basic cognitive bias, the baggage we all carry.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Ten Kulch Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 29 Jan 2018 at 15:20
I think much of the debate is because the commentary is focused on members and population. In early war, the roster does get cleaned of inactives and players wishing to avoid war.

By the mid-war, which is where the real fighting happens between active players, there might be a million troops lost fighting over a single city, which is insignificant in the population stats. The focus is on armies, which makes the defense and attack stats much more relevant than cities and population.

That gridlock usually breaks at the end stages of war. If the defending alliance is depleted of troops, suddenly the attacking alliance is able to siege at will. The number of sieges spikes, causing significant city and population losses. Surrenders begin to be processed (or players flee the losing alliance), leading to a shrinking roster and major city and population loss. Even so, the question is usually who is leaving, because many old alliances have inactives on the roster that can obscure more important departures.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Tensmoor Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 29 Jan 2018 at 13:18
So if you were able to see where players came from/went to? That info is available by analysing successive days data files.

I have been thinking about sieges in general when I'm not woodworking/exercising/broadband problem chasing and there seems to be no data generally available apart from the GC Notifications/Herald Siege page and those only give you info about when they start not when/how they end. Whilst comparing the Herald page over time could give you an indication of when a siege ended I can see no method of being able to discern why it ended. Did the occupy time finish, were the troops recalled, did the target come out and break it, did outside forces come to the targets aid breaking the siege? Thing is, being a non-military player this sort of thing doesn't really rock my boat which means it would be quite low on my to do list - much more important is deciding if I should stay or go.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Grom Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 29 Jan 2018 at 08:43
My point is simply that the stats,interesting though they me be, don't reflect what is happening on the field. For example. If one alliance has a 30 city account go over the 90 day threshold, while the other alliance gets a diplmatic visit from a friend with 20 cities, you suddenly have a 50 city gap in statistics. At a realistic raze rate it would take at least 15 weeks to offset just that one occurence.

So yes, your numbers do a good job in showing the natural flux in alliances, but don't reflect conflicts. You'd get roughly the same numbers if you'd compare two equally large alliances at peace. So for those interested in the actual military progress I will add our own numbers here, including only razes, forced exo's and perhaps siege breaks.

Please don't get me wrong though. I appreciate what you are trying to do. I just wanted to add to it for those who, like myself, have a different definition of war stats.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Mafro Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 29 Jan 2018 at 04:56
Originally posted by Grom Grom wrote:

This serves absolutely no purpuse. We are currently 6-0 in razes, with a 4-0 forced exo rate. Those are the only numbers directly influenced by the hostilities. I will update them when changes occur.

Grom, I believe I understand your frustration. TCol has 4 fewer members and 28 fewer towns than when you began your action against Aesir. However, you view none of those losses as being directly influenced by the hostilities.

Perhaps they were indirectly influenced by the hostilities...members that chose to leave, or were kicked, so as not to be targeted...or perhaps their leaving truly had nothing to do with the war. All I know is that every alliance I've observed that has entered a war has had their member list trimmed down immediately thereafter. My guess is that it's the inactives getting kicked...or perhaps those closer to the front lines or less dedicated to the cause hitting the road.

I really can't say what it is in TCol's case...I can only report the stats.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Grom Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 28 Jan 2018 at 10:58
This serves absolutely no purpuse. We are currently 6-0 in razes, with a 4-0 forced exo rate. Those are the only numbers directly influenced by the hostilities. I will update them when changes occur.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Mafro Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 26 Jan 2018 at 06:33
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Zenorra Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 23 Jan 2018 at 14:14
I don't think these numbers are helpful. Aesir does more damage to themselves, which TCol can't take credit for.

Numbers mean nothing. Only thing that matters is who is willing to surrender first.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Mafro Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 23 Jan 2018 at 05:22
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Zenorra Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 20 Jan 2018 at 13:55
He said "puffery". hehehehe!
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