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dunnoob
Postmaster
Joined: 10 Dec 2011
Location: Elijal
Status: Offline
Points: 800
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Posted: 16 Nov 2012 at 09:26 |
Darmon wrote:
I thought only The Colony had declared war? And even then, that it was only on one Consone alliance? I figured TCol was just pursuing their own agenda, since they only declared on Worlds End (same as RES and Curse). |
JFTR, it's similar for ~N~ and ~NA~, so far they are "only" at war with ABSA, ROADS, and WE.
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Bonaparta
Postmaster
Joined: 03 Nov 2011
Location: Milky Way
Status: Offline
Points: 541
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Posted: 16 Nov 2012 at 08:17 |
Who is winning the war?
Since BSH is neutral my only source of information are Elgea stats and trade activity. From outside perspective it looks something like that: Trade activity is slowly slowing down and prices are returning to pre-tourney pre-war state. The impact of the tourney on trade was far greater than war, so I'm guessing that casualty rate in the war is also much lower than in tourney. Some semi-large battles are happening all the time, but from graph of all moving attacking and defending armies I can conclude that commutative casualties are also way lower than in the tourney. Since 33% of the server is involved in the war I thought this would be higher.
Well obviously "blietzkrieg" didn't happen. Partly because of new siege rules that makes fast razing (less than a day) very hard next to impossible and training time disadvantage of defensive units against offensive ones. At the beginning some Absa towns were razed, but that actually makes less than 1% of Consone population. From strategic point of view this is negligible. Psychological impact might be higher. I think that the war has reached kind of a stalemate where neither side is launching numerous well defended sieges and other side is able to brake those sieges.
Projection: H? & Co had advantage at the beginning of the war with larger army sizes. Initial army size is less important each day that the war continues, so the final winner will be determined by the army production rate. Who has higher army production rate is hard to determine, but if I had to guess I would say Consone, simply because of more towns. Town size is really not a big factor in production rates. How many inactives there are in each camp is hard to determines, but I would guess about the same. I've saw no simultaneous 100 town sieges so far from any side which would in my opinion if successful be decisive strategical move. So I conclude that strategy from both camps is about the same- limited sieges to isolated targets. How well this tactic is implemented, well from the number of razed towns I would say it is not very effective. Both camps have more population than in the beginning of the war, so raze rate is very low indeed.
My betting odds today would be 60:40 in favour of H? + others, but if war continues without any large scale siege operations for another week, I would say around 50:50. Of course this prognosis would be different if anyone else joined this war, especially Crows.
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Darmon
Forum Warrior
Joined: 15 Aug 2012
Status: Offline
Points: 315
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Posted: 16 Nov 2012 at 07:32 |
Aurordan wrote:
Actually, Darkstar is in. |
I thought only The Colony had declared war? And even then, that it was only on one Consone alliance? I figured TCol was just pursuing their own agenda, since they only declared on Worlds End (same as RES and Curse). I wish someone would tell me why everyone seems to hate WE.
Though, if anyone would like to correct me, please do. It's been a while since much news has surfaced about the war (though I'd sort of prefer it if we didn't grow another 60-some page mega thread in here).
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Aurordan
Postmaster
Player Council - Ambassador
Joined: 21 Sep 2011
Location: United States
Status: Offline
Points: 982
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Posted: 16 Nov 2012 at 05:29 |
Actually, Darkstar is in. We just need Crows. And a few significant independents. And for Illy to end, but I wouldn't hold my breath.
EDIT: Upon further reflection, I realize I have more to say. I agree that Consone still has the capacity to make a fight of it, but I think it will depend on whether they can pull together and keep their members on the field or if desertion and disinterest take too high a toll. Thus far it seems they've been far more susceptible to that than their opponents.
Edited by Aurordan - 16 Nov 2012 at 05:47
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dunnoob
Postmaster
Joined: 10 Dec 2011
Location: Elijal
Status: Offline
Points: 800
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Posted: 16 Nov 2012 at 05:17 |
Mr Damage wrote:
I think you guys have stated in GC that you are winning, which is probably right if you base it on cities razed which seems to be the accepted method. |
IMO the real war has not yet started, the first 25:3 razes might not mean much. VIC should "soon" (early December) regain its pre-tournament strength. A graph showing the daily growth by players / pop / cities / land of greater good vs. harmless farmers could be interesting, the side growing faster is winning.
If the coalition grew by two cities losing three would be a loss, and if consone grew by 30 cities losing 25 might be not too bad. Both sides have cities they can't defend in 2013, and losing them now could be a good riddance. Without crowlition and DSD it can't be an Illy armageddon.
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Aurordan
Postmaster
Player Council - Ambassador
Joined: 21 Sep 2011
Location: United States
Status: Offline
Points: 982
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Posted: 16 Nov 2012 at 04:45 |
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Interesting. So we can start discussion threads deliberately excluding a player, and any post they make will be deleted? Not sure how I feel about that.
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Mr Damage
Postmaster
Joined: 01 Jan 2011
Status: Offline
Points: 598
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Posted: 16 Nov 2012 at 04:02 |
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I think you guys have stated in GC that you are winning, which is probably right if you base it on cities razed which seems to be the accepted method. Kudos to the "coalition"(that is official now isn't it?)
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Kumomoto
Postmaster General
Joined: 19 Oct 2009
Status: Offline
Points: 2224
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Posted: 16 Nov 2012 at 03:56 |
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It is Armageddon! Run for the hills! It's the end of Illy! Let's write a blog about it!
Kumo grabs his fluffy slippers and his love fern and runs to his underground shelter...
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The_Dude
Postmaster General
Joined: 06 Apr 2010
Location: Texas
Status: Offline
Points: 2396
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Posted: 16 Nov 2012 at 03:51 |
I am winning! MWHAHAHAHA!
I am the most evilest in all of Illy! MWHAHAHAHA!
Please allow me to introduce myself....
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geofrey
Postmaster General
Joined: 31 May 2011
Status: Offline
Points: 1013
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Posted: 16 Nov 2012 at 02:57 |
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It is the loss of a large portion of all military units in-game.
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