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Topic ClosedProbability to Defy Death

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Timrath View Drop Down
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Direct Link To This Post Topic: Probability to Defy Death
    Posted: 02 Sep 2013 at 03:20
I lost an offensive battle, but all my 5 commanders survived. They each had 7% Defy Death. According to my calculations, the probability of that happening is 0.00016807%.
That seems like a very unlikely coincidence. Is it possible that when Defy Death triggers for either commander, it automatically applies to all the other commanders as well, or are they truly independent? And do other factors influence their chance of survival? Like vitality?

I don't know if my calculation is correct, though. My train of thought was:
1. The probability of one commander surviving is 7%.
2. The probability of two commanders surviving is 0.49% (7% of 7%)
3. The probability of three commanders surviving is 0.0343% (7% of 0.49%)
4. The probability of four commanders surviving is 0.002401% (7% of 0.0343%)
5. The probability of five commanders surviving is 7% of 0.002401% = 0.00016807%
Any mathematician in the house?
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Brandmeister View Drop Down
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: 02 Sep 2013 at 03:53
In battle reports that I've seen, it appears that if one of your commanders defies death, they all do. Or at least a great many of them.
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DeathDealer89 View Drop Down
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: 02 Sep 2013 at 04:04
I think its time to go buy a lotto ticket.  
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Gragnog View Drop Down
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: 02 Sep 2013 at 13:06
Yeah, seems like you need to go buy a lotto ticket. Even with maxed defy death my guys rarely all survive.
Kaggen is my human half
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Yhina View Drop Down
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: 09 Sep 2013 at 11:14
I believe there is a "single roll" for each side. That result is compared with each defy death skill. Thus all commanders that die in same battle, and have same skill level, either survive or die. If there was a single roll for each commander, some will survive while others would die, regardless of their skill.

I have seen 30+ commanders survive in same battle, so the roll was under their "% to defy death".

In diferent skilled commanders, i have seen some survive and others die. Example, if the chance was 8% for some and 10% for others, the roll was , lets say 9, and those with 10% survived, the ones with 8 didn't do the cut...

In short, the number of commanders and their skills don't affect the chances of each commander to survive. A single roll is set for each side, and that compared to each personal survival chance (based on his defy death skill level). Those under the cut, survive.

Regarding the chance to survive per skill level.... Asuming no other factor, such as how badly crushed your army was or any other factor, including a random luck value. We would have just to add up enough fights with results (based on their defy death skill level), to get some "estimation".
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