I added condefs links to the war graph ( http://illyriad.jokair.info/tests/illy.wars.conf.html" rel="nofollow - interactive alpha test here ) in green, and a temporal viewing of the war declarations : blue means older, red mean new.

As noticed in the illycalypse post, the 2 camps are very differently organised, with a strong clique for consone while all their opponents are linked to H?. But for who is it an advantage ? Consone is not well organised. Everybody supports quite everybody, but who is leading ? WE has the more ongoing wars, but VIC and EE are the "older" in this conflict.  H? is central in his group, has the more population, and a strong leader. They can act as a lightning rod and 1/ be beheaded or 2/ while absorbing the attacks, their allies can attack without much trouble.

For the question "Who is winning this war ?"  : nobody yet ! Some new wars were declared past few days, and I guess some more alliances will join. To go further, I would predict nobody will win this war for 2 reasons : too much alliances involved and no common criterias to say : "I'm wining/leading the race !". This situation lead me to think thoses wars will die without winners (or with multiple winners and forum posts war ^^ ).

Will more alliance join this conflict ? Will they agree on a winning milestone ? 

Please, post your analysis !

Kero