Tourney Score 5 Day Linear Extrapolation
Printed From: Illyriad
Category: The World
Forum Name: Elgea
Forum Description: For everything related to the Elgea Continent
URL: http://forum.illyriad.co.uk/forum_posts.asp?TID=4352
Printed Date: 16 Apr 2022 at 23:41
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Topic: Tourney Score 5 Day Linear Extrapolation
Posted By: allamagoosa
Subject: Tourney Score 5 Day Linear Extrapolation
Date Posted: 17 Oct 2012 at 15:52
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The following chart was created with data extracted from the graph (so I had to pick out the numbers by eye) and plotted in excel. I calculated a simple average 2 day average of that data and used it to project 5 days into the future. -A  |
Replies:
Posted By: Arakamis
Date Posted: 17 Oct 2012 at 17:00
| ooohh another nerd like me.. :) nice job mate.. ;) |
Posted By: Grainne
Date Posted: 17 Oct 2012 at 17:03
Ah...but you'll have some more data....soon.....  ------------- http://elgea.illyriad.co.uk/a/p/45918" rel="nofollow"> 
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Posted By: Albatross
Date Posted: 18 Oct 2012 at 01:30
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Heh, have a good look at the rules, run some numbers, and try to model that. It will be enlightening ;o) -------------  |
Posted By: The_Dude
Date Posted: 18 Oct 2012 at 04:23
| I fail to see any utility to a 5 day linear projection. |
Posted By: allamagoosa
Date Posted: 19 Oct 2012 at 13:09
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Well then I will just have to make you a 6 day graph. -A
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Posted By: Rorgash
Date Posted: 19 Oct 2012 at 13:28
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so you did what extend the lines in the angle they were going and you say you predicted things? considering that in one day you can easily lose half you soul income and start dropping, and is happening back and forth, i would with some certainty say that your prediction will most likely be incorrect. ------------- 
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Posted By: Rorgash
Date Posted: 19 Oct 2012 at 13:30
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also after taking a look at the IG graph, i see the straight line being completely off as Crows skyrocketed up and didn't go smoothly. -------------
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Posted By: allamagoosa
Date Posted: 19 Oct 2012 at 15:56
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I don't disagree the prediction will be off. Most extrapolations are. Especially when they are based on only a couple of days of data and certainly in cases like this where things are very dynamic. If you read my original post you won't see any claim regarding error bars on the extrapolation and I described what I did to come up with the graph. -A
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Posted By: dunnoob
Date Posted: 19 Oct 2012 at 16:47
Let's see some http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/B-spline" rel="nofollow - B-spline s. 
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Posted By: Mogul
Date Posted: 19 Oct 2012 at 18:21
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As we where forced out of tournament my casualties summaries are no more used. But maybe for those still participating, this can be interesting (especially compared with previous tournament casualties): http://www.puzzleslogic.com/illy/casualties.html" rel="nofollow - http://www.puzzleslogic.com/illy/casualties.html
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Posted By: Loud Whispers
Date Posted: 19 Oct 2012 at 18:51
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Mogul wrote:Posted By: Sisren
Date Posted: 19 Oct 2012 at 20:14
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A 3 period moving average may give a greater degree of confidence in the trends. Are you taking the average of period 0, -1, -2 and comparing to period -1, -2, -3 for the trending (can give an indication of a trend is in ascension or descent)? Also, are you taking into account the alliances at war, and not in the tournament? ------------- Illy is different from Physics- Reactions are rarely Equal, and rarely the opposite of what you'd expect... |
Posted By: allamagoosa
Date Posted: 19 Oct 2012 at 21:47
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Nothing like that at all. This was the most basic of extrapolation. I simply calculated the average slope of the line over 2 days and projected a line 5 days into the future based off of that slope. As someone else indicated earlier this sort of extrapolation in this type of scenario has very large error bars for anything more then a couple of days out. I really did it more to start a discussion and start to think about what can be done. Cheers, -A |
Posted By: Silverlake
Date Posted: 19 Oct 2012 at 23:12
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I wish all those competing in the tournament GOOD LUCK ------------- http://elgea.illyriad.co.uk/a/p/57338" rel="nofollow"> 
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Posted By: Grainne
Date Posted: 19 Oct 2012 at 23:41
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Thank you Silverlake; odd as it may sound, I wish more were competing in the tournament.... ------------- http://elgea.illyriad.co.uk/a/p/45918" rel="nofollow">
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Posted By: The_Dude
Date Posted: 20 Oct 2012 at 00:18
This tourney will have an asterisks next to the results indicating a "players' strike due to wars."
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Posted By: Silverlake
Date Posted: 20 Oct 2012 at 01:41
You are more than welcome Grainne, as you may know I took first place in my league in tourney #4 and throughly enjoyed working with my alliance to win tourney #5, it is with a heavy heart I can not compete in this tourney, but my mission to clean Illy of bullies calls me away. Take care ------------- http://elgea.illyriad.co.uk/a/p/57338" rel="nofollow">
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Posted By: Grainne
Date Posted: 20 Oct 2012 at 04:40
No, I didn't know that! Congrats!  ------------- http://elgea.illyriad.co.uk/a/p/45918" rel="nofollow">
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