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For statistics addicts - part I

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Topic: For statistics addicts - part I
Posted By: Hucbold
Subject: For statistics addicts - part I
Date Posted: 02 Mar 2020 at 22:58
I'll be making a series of posts with statistics for the tournaments - only nerds need read.

Attacker  Killed   Lost   Tot losses   Battles   Ratio 
Davy Jones' Locker [RUM]            4,195,988            1,786,168            5,982,156            2,935           2.35
Skeleton Boar [SkB]            3,781,676            2,160,116            5,941,792            2,813           1.75
Illy Training Ground [ITG]            3,664,718            1,146,535            4,811,253            2,287           3.20
The Pirate Horde [YARR!]            2,580,246            1,339,603            3,919,849                885           1.93
Slaves to Armok [StA]            2,452,677                947,827            3,400,504            2,303           2.59
Northern Ascension [Ascn]            2,217,947                940,964            3,158,911            1,431           2.36
Harmless? [H?]            2,025,349                605,668            2,631,017            1,353           3.34
Fairy Road Authority [Roads]            1,755,840                795,035            2,550,875            1,171           2.21
Dwarven Lords [Dlord]            1,721,199                522,925            2,244,124                883           3.29
VicToRix [VTX]            1,015,630                318,469            1,334,099                302           3.19
The Unbowed [Unbow]                697,994                239,320                937,314                531           2.92
Dwarven in-law [DiL]                596,179                314,068                910,247                288           1.90
Æsir [Æsir]                557,866                102,548                660,414                102           5.44
Murder of Crows [mCrow]                542,274                150,890                693,164                519           3.59
The Eastern Empire [TCol]                466,476                166,609                633,085                  68           2.80
Order of the Maiar [MAIAR]                463,750                205,789                669,539                201           2.25
Achaean's League [ACHE]                340,240                127,831                468,071                104           2.66
Nonsuch [NON]                318,249                109,528                427,777                151           2.91
Solitude [-----]                293,443                  90,444                383,887                344           3.24
Broken Lands Express [BLX]                291,010                102,866                393,876                442           2.83
ETERNAL SECRETS [SEEKR]                286,811                  55,862                342,673                  18           5.13
Love And Freedom [Laugh]                224,031                  78,118                302,149                134           2.87
PRAEVALEO [PRVAL]                220,392                195,604                415,996                115           1.13
The Grey Company [G!]                214,644                  98,127                312,771                488           2.19
Super Okay Fun Time [SOFT]                189,562                  62,301                251,863                118           3.04
FierceFriendSociety [FFS]                181,412                  80,535                261,947                165           2.25
Maelstrom [VortX]                159,411                  71,140                230,551                  52           2.24
Union of Maedhros [UNION]                141,839                  88,124                229,963                  83           1.61
The Lodge [ZZZ]                141,116                  69,224                210,340                130           2.04
Four Winds Traders [4WT]                127,902                  46,797                174,699                  80           2.73
Zanpurian Candidate [Free]                124,283                  50,016                174,299                159           2.48
Roman Empire [RE]                118,058                  61,003                179,061                  95           1.94
Crow's Nest [nCrow]                103,363                  30,304                133,667                  43           3.41
EAGLES EYRIE [EE]                  89,542                  44,514                134,056                  59           2.01
SnugglerCoalition [HUGs]                  79,648                  32,803                112,451                231           2.43
The Willd Bunch [Willd]                  73,510                  63,319                136,829                116           1.16
Strendur United [SUN]                  59,078                  27,416                  86,494                163           2.15
Marauders by default [M.d]                  58,223                  19,069                  77,292                  13           3.05
Achaean's Associates [*AA*]                  44,488                  16,618                  61,106                  79           2.68
Reference [INFO]                  40,792                  13,094                  53,886                  23           3.12
Dragon Aerie [Aerie]                  40,459                  10,650                  51,109                  87           3.80
Iron Crusade [Iron]                  38,813                  34,155                  72,968                  68           1.14
Mos Eisley Cantina [TA2IN]                  23,099                  14,194                  37,293                  34           1.63
The Kingdom [King]                  20,813                  12,128                  32,941                  20           1.72
The Fellowship [TFotR]                  19,755                     5,952                  25,707                  51           3.32
Legendary [Lgd]                  17,959                     5,171                  23,130                115           3.47
The Keltae [KELTS]                  12,037                     1,628                  13,665                    9           7.39
Targets [hit]                     9,036                     3,468                  12,504                    4           2.61
The GALL [PLukM]                     5,667                  12,510                  18,177                    2           0.45
Valiant [Valor]                     4,734                     4,062                     8,796                    6           1.17
TeraLishiousCo. [TLC]                     1,819                     1,230                     3,049                  13           1.48
INDOMITI [IND]                     1,650                        900                     2,550                    4           1.83
Hyperiums [HYPE]                     1,221                        249                     1,470                    5           4.90
DragonLords [Lords]                        182                        180                        362                    1           1.01
Elves [ELVES]                           10                           50                           60                    2           0.20
Totals          32,854,110          13,483,718          46,337,828          21,898           2.44


So SkB used more troops but less efficiently than Rum.
Ascn matched Rum for efficiency but didn't have the player numbers.
The figures are sorted by numbers killed - Later posts will look at losses in defence.


Replies:
Posted By: Hucbold
Date Posted: 02 Mar 2020 at 23:07
Want to know who lost a heap of troops (in attack)?

Top 100 by own troops lost in attack

Player    Lost    Killed  Ratio
1 Ellania [SkB]                512,661                  591,617           1.15
2 Eliza J [StA]                284,050                  635,831           2.24
3 Solanar [YARR!]                273,702                  473,074           1.73
4 Miss Hyde [StA]                266,712                  721,791           2.71
5 Fanuidhol [Ascn]                248,667                  139,600           0.56
6 KILGORE [SkB]                223,210                  477,135           2.14
7 Haxs [YARR!]                203,420                  682,957           3.36
8 Thirion [SkB]                202,316                  239,047           1.18
9 Quentin the Miffed [StA]                199,351                  559,494           2.81
10 The Mariner [ITG]                190,225                  583,546           3.07
11 Hellie [RUM]                188,959                  475,906           2.52
12 Montag [DW]                186,929                  136,549           0.73
13 Hexs [YARR!]                183,106                  446,861           2.44
14 Siro [ITG]                164,305                  480,693           2.93
15 Djehuti the Silent [YARR!]                159,366                  103,083           0.65
16 Seadog [YARR!]                150,429                  189,172           1.26
17 Larry [ITG]                148,961                  593,578           3.98
18 Lupia [ITG]                144,864                  437,500           3.02
19 Mordok [Dlord]                138,404                  782,471           5.65
20 Lorr [PRVAL]                126,629                    85,671           0.68
21 Blag [StA]                125,650                  354,265           2.82
22 Wartow [SkB]                124,160                  296,582           2.39
23 Kaeru [RUM]                122,041                  385,756           3.16
24 optimus prime                107,137                  117,814           1.10
25 Roweena [Roads]                102,907                  222,008           2.16
26 PugGuy [Ascn]                100,920                  459,341           4.55
27 Ammianus [TCol]                  98,528                  354,789           3.60
28 DeathDealer89-II [H?]                  88,095                  172,637           1.96
29 Tachyon [VTX]                  85,322                  295,461           3.46
30 fortebraccio [H?]                  84,241                  413,605           4.91
31 Groo [Roads]                  83,729                  216,266           2.58
32 Yuki                  82,854                  106,727           1.29
33 TooFarOrc [Roads]                  82,753                    67,476           0.82
34 Malus [YARR!]                  81,621                    92,274           1.13
35 Maedhros [UNION]                  81,535                  126,645           1.55
36 Alcie [Roads]                  78,438                  142,917           1.82
37 satantango [RUM]                  77,727                  254,116           3.27
38 Train Wreck [mCrow]                  75,628                  108,404           1.43
39 Danger Russ [Ascn]                  75,375                  209,441           2.78
40 Ruarc [RUM]                  74,788                  201,637           2.70
41 TooFarGone [Roads]                  72,535                  146,583           2.02
42 Greymarch [YARR!]                  71,938                  214,218           2.98
43 Zelf [SkB]                  71,003                  174,489           2.46
44 Ranalos [YARR!]                  70,113                    91,493           1.30
45 Buridan [SkB]                  69,437                  175,471           2.53
46 Fyanna [RUM]                  67,638                  168,598           2.49
47 Pasi [Ascn]                  66,633                  257,374           3.86
48 Tha'Ghàidhlig'Agam [SkB]                  66,488                  151,157           2.27
49 Eagle [Ascn]                  66,468                    95,920           1.44
50 Asvenger [Roads]                  65,480                  167,018           2.55
51 RugRat [VTX]                  64,307                  178,055           2.77
52 Firestone [YARR!]                  63,861                  117,040           1.83
53 Sera [H?]                  63,611                  377,461           5.93
54 Roan [RUM]                  63,517                  120,505           1.90
55 EvilDuckOrc [DiL]                  63,458                    67,500           1.06
56 Herzog2 [Ascn]                  62,243                  213,626           3.43
57 Brent Antonius [Unbow]                  62,189                  185,019           2.98
58 tych [Roads]                  61,954                    91,170           1.47
59 Azok The Defiler [MAIAR]                  60,816                  114,983           1.89
60 Thaden [Dlord]                  59,669                  158,667           2.66
61 Unghal Ironbreaker [Dlord]                  59,558                  145,777           2.45
62 Elyssa [NON]                  59,152                  160,337           2.71
63 Azreil [MAIAR]                  58,729                  116,601           1.99
64 G0DsDestroyer [Æsir]                  58,685                  240,738           4.10
65 Dendro                  57,336                  101,299           1.77
66 Rashidi [RUM]                  57,275                  127,932           2.23
67 Thistle Boy [SkB]                  55,878                  207,247           3.71
68 Ajax [Ascn]                  55,824                  147,834           2.65
69 Alboin [SEEKR]                  55,562                  284,549           5.12
70 Dáin II Ironfoot [Dlord]                  54,505                  121,791           2.23
71 Moksha [ITG]                  53,561                    37,988           0.71
72 Aer [RUM]                  51,951                  104,567           2.01
73 JohnBob [Unbow]                  51,911                  110,223           2.12
74 Nonni [SkB]                  51,822                  150,840           2.91
75 runelord [RUM]                  51,565                    95,116           1.84
76 Selene. [SkB]                  51,456                    35,029           0.68
77 Rwdnyll [H?]                  51,331                  119,933           2.34
78 Phym [H?]                  51,202                  228,533           4.46
79 Nelsifer Muledwun [Dlord]                  50,000                    49,556           0.99
80 Seven [VortX]                  49,344                  100,883           2.04
81 Opusvax [ITG]                  48,313                    66,942           1.39
82 Grimvald [Roads]                  47,496                  134,925           2.84
83 Asperpo [RUM]                  47,250                    41,853           0.89
84 Froed [SkB]                  46,963                  115,990           2.47
85 Alestrenia [ITG]                  46,672                    92,330           1.98
86 Keaves [MAIAR]                  46,426                  125,703           2.71
87 Hrix [VTX]                  46,401                  159,666           3.44
88 kubluntu [SkB]                  46,094                  111,797           2.43
89 Arlord [Dlord]                  45,866                    75,393           1.64
90 Flavia Marzia [RUM]                  44,844                    76,980           1.72
91 Tar [SkB]                  44,709                    63,899           1.43
92 Samalander [FDU-S]                  44,364                  182,343           4.11
93 Zolvon [Laugh]                  43,074                  154,017           3.58
94 Mes-kalam-dug [TCol]                  42,340                    36,398           0.86
95 Eeric [BLX]                  42,291                  142,931           3.38
96 RobertScott [RUM]                  42,076                  119,713           2.85
97 Akeles [SkB]                  41,672                  116,978           2.81
98 Random [-----]                  41,406                  159,989           3.86
99 Player 1 [Ascn]                  40,832                    89,605           2.19
100 Bridgette [RUM]                  40,462                  114,492           2.83

Posted By: Hucbold
Date Posted: 02 Mar 2020 at 23:20
Now from Defenders point of view

 Alliance   Attackers lost   Lost in defence   Battles   Ratio 
 Skeleton Boar [SkB]              1,243,364                4,573,716       2,917      3.68
 Northern Ascension [Ascn]              1,458,054                3,771,225       2,293      2.59
 Davy Jones' Locker [RUM]              1,492,834                3,690,034       2,314      2.47
 Harmless? [H?]              1,407,961                3,159,266       1,763      2.24
 The Pirate Horde [YARR!]              1,021,927                2,565,699           923      2.51
 Illy Training Ground [ITG]              1,264,711                2,370,910       2,438      1.87
 Slaves to Armok [StA]                  851,067                1,905,263       1,758      2.24
 Fairy Road Authority [Roads]                  735,143                1,903,592       1,679      2.59
 Dwarven in-law [DiL]                  809,541                1,242,913           368      1.54
 Maelstrom [VortX]                  279,214                    943,548           211      3.38
 VicToRix [VTX]                  259,109                    901,606           514      3.48
 Love And Freedom [Laugh]                  425,145                    844,339           416      1.99
 PRAEVALEO [PRVAL]                  216,884                    657,873           223      3.03
 Dwarven Lords [Dlord]                  384,972                    553,216           362      1.44
 Iron Crusade [Iron]                    98,967                    395,095           141      3.99
 Legendary [Lgd]                  196,878                    353,405           373      1.80
 Dragon Aerie [Aerie]                    82,230                    346,455           115      4.21
 Solitude [-----]                  158,742                    315,134           329      1.99
 FierceFriendSociety [FFS]                  114,940                    311,869           374      2.71
 EAGLES EYRIE [EE]                  181,557                    270,306           168      1.49
 Broken Lands Express [BLX]                    89,081                    219,686           176      2.47
 Roman Empire [RE]                  107,115                    210,729             70      1.97
 The Unbowed [Unbow]                    88,039                    206,704           216      2.35
 Zanpurian Candidate [Free]                    76,733                    199,881           164      2.60
 The Willd Bunch [Willd]                    35,567                    168,847             88      4.75
 Murder of Crows [mCrow]                    44,881                    109,842           362      2.45
 Union of Maedhros [UNION]                    35,421                    109,344             54      3.09
 The Grey Company [G!]                    36,675                      84,042           207      2.29
 The Eastern Empire [TCol]                    39,240                      77,289             76      1.97
 Order of the Maiar [MAIAR]                    31,929                      70,503           111      2.21
 The Lodge [ZZZ]                    31,089                      67,472             34      2.17
 ETERNAL SECRETS [SEEKR]                    30,204                      57,693             18      1.91
 Achaean's League [ACHE]                    36,160                      54,944           109      1.52
 SnugglerCoalition [HUGs]                    23,855                      41,096           110      1.72
 Crow's Nest [nCrow]                    24,074                      40,051             70      1.66
 Mos Eisley Cantina [TA2IN]                    45,620                      37,602                7      0.82
 Unaffiliated Player                      2,242                      10,715             10      4.78
 Super Okay Fun Time [SOFT]                      5,015                      10,534             69      2.10
 Marauders by default [M.d]                      4,006                      10,248             11      2.56
 Æsir [Æsir]                    12,099                         9,781             77      0.81
 The Kingdom [King]                      2,572                         7,549             21      2.94
 Elves [ELVES]                      4,287                         6,641                6      1.55
 Four Winds Traders [4WT]                      3,620                         5,758             34      1.59
 Nonsuch [NON]                      1,669                         3,858             13      2.31
 The Fellowship [TFotR]                      1,347                         3,710             11      2.75
 Strendur United [SUN]                          565                         1,773                6      3.14
 Valiant [Valor]                          256                         1,562                5      6.10
 Targets [hit]                            90                            760                1      8.44
 Achaean's Associates [*AA*]                          350                            330             71      0.94
 Black Skull Horde [BSH]                            21                            300                1    14.29
 TeraLishiousCo. [TLC]                            25                            293                3    11.72
 Exercitus Aureii [E/A]                            38                            150                1      3.95
 The Keltae [KELTS]                            28                            115                2      4.11
 The GALL [PLukM]                               9                               60                1      6.67

e.g SkB lost 4.5m ant their attackers used 1.2m troops to do so.
Here lower ratios reflect better o the alliance - they defended better.
Again we see a lot of dead SkB with relatively poor ratio.

Posted By: Wartow
Date Posted: 03 Mar 2020 at 20:54
We [SkB] had A LOT of plains [Freemorn, Kal T, Keppen, Lan Larosh, Meilla, The Wastes] for which we were competing.  Only The Western Realms and Tor Carrock gave us a break with a small and large hill respectively.  The random location of totems did not provide favorable terrains in our corner of Elgea.

Thanks for the numbers!


-------------

Posted By: Hucbold
Date Posted: 03 Mar 2020 at 22:02
Thanks Wartow, I meant to make that point - here's the square distribution for Elgea

Large Forest 3
Large Hill 3
Large Mountain 1
Plains 24
Small Forest 1
Small Hill 3
Small Mountain 2

and for BL:

Large Forest 6
Large Hill 3
Large Mountain 2
Plains 8
Small Forest 7
Small Hill 4
Small Mountain 1

Something wrong with their random number generator in Elgea ????

Posted By: Thirion
Date Posted: 03 Mar 2020 at 22:16
Thanks a lot for the numbers. I would really like a "Defense by player" statistic if thats possible.

I do think though that you have to be a bit careful with the numbers and thus your conclusions. There are cheap (e.g. sentinels and kobolds) and expensive (cav) units - thus you are going to get a lot different ratios depending on the units you use. In my opinion it would be better to use "Kills/gold per hour" / "Losses/gold per hour" or "Kills/training cost" / "Losses/training cost".

Even with that you have to be careful with the numbers as there are a lot of other factor like the terrain you (have to) fight on, the gear you are using, the level of commanders and last the goal you are trying to archieve. Its easy to get a good kill ratio by attacking with cav on plains - its a lot harder to win a plains square.

I (Thirion+Ellania) used a Sentinel-only setup with lvl 10 commanders (only forced march), no gear and all of them on occupy. The upside is that it is really cheap and i can spam squares a lot - the downside is that the kill ratio sucks. I do think though that it is a good strategy with the current tournament meta (not putting to much on squares and instead spamming them) and i got a lot of time with it. I am going to try another approach in the next tourney i compete in.

Posted By: Hucbold
Date Posted: 03 Mar 2020 at 22:25
@Thirion - I'd love to give you that but the stats are only available in the way the devs publish the data. Of course cav get better kill ratios but there's no way to identify cav attacks versus bows or spears or whatever. Ratios don't matter! Time on squares does. Devs don't tell us how much time players get on squares. We do know alliances times on squares ... and RUM won. Some of us like statistics too! .... and we're stuck with trying to draw inferences from incomplete data - just like RL!

Posted By: Hucbold
Date Posted: 03 Mar 2020 at 22:27
@Wartow - There's also a shortage of squares in NW Elgea:

NW Elgea 5
NE Elgea 10
SW Elgea 10
SE Elgea 12
NW BL 9
NE BL 6
SW BL 7
SE BL 9

Those regions in NW Elgea are biggggg. Lets start a campaign to split some of them?????

Posted By: Hucbold
Date Posted: 03 Mar 2020 at 22:35
I'd also make the point that changing the squares just before the start makes a lottery out of what claims to be a strategic game. Strategy is about planning. People are now building troops for the next tourney without knowing what type of terrain they will be fighting on. To me it would make more sense to change the squares immediately AFTER the end of the tourney so you can PLAN for the next one - so what if people move towns - is that not strategy at work? I'd also like to see a more even distribution of terrain types AND some squares on buildings (to kill cav) but that's just me!

Posted By: eowan the short
Date Posted: 03 Mar 2020 at 23:10
Any thoughts on using the towns data to produce some data showing how town density in the surroundings of a square correlated with death toll?

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This is the thread that never ends, yes it goes on and on my friend. Some person started it, not knowing what it was, and we'll continue posting on it forever just because...

Posted By: Snook
Date Posted: 04 Mar 2020 at 01:34
Sweet nice work Hucbold
now if the DEVS would mak a page only for history of tournies as far back as they want to go :)

Posted By: Hucbold
Date Posted: 04 Mar 2020 at 15:23
Some more stats: 

Region Terrain Battles Kill Ratio Total dead
Meilla Plains 1913          3.25      1,119,513
Lan Larosh Plains 1393          2.52      3,977,143
Puchuallpa L Forest 1273          2.46      1,821,897
High Hills S Hill 929          2.63      1,165,613
Glanhad L Forest 927          2.33      1,768,875
Northmarch S Hill 927          2.33      1,768,875
 Long White Plains 869          2.61      1,912,191
Turalia Plains 814          2.19      2,522,436
Kal Tirikan Plains 811          2.53      1,087,293
Fellandire Plains 756          2.58          834,779
Kumala Plains 747          2.71          913,790
Elijal Plains 679          2.91          851,255
Freemorn Plains 668          2.53          857,310
Arran Plains 560          1.86          435,520
Perrigor Plains 545          2.89      1,783,929
Clarien S Forest 517          2.74          536,650
Jurgor Plains 446          1.83          561,210
Pawanallpa Plains 434          3.19          141,387
Lucerna Plains 356          2.94          443,642
Kormandly S Forest 341          2.65      1,473,723
Farra Isle Plains 297          2.92          378,369
Strendur S Forest 288          2.22          517,699
Western Realms S Hill 287          2.64      1,064,273
Coanhara S Forest 260          2.51          592,248
Wolgast Plains 256          3.28      1,268,058
Rill Archipilago S Mt 253          1.82      1,706,094
Shardlands Plains 247          3.44          493,015
Farshards S Mt 238          1.54      2,287,183
Aindara Plains 226          3.32          596,920
Windlost Plains 221          1.97          578,828
Stormstone Plains 217          2.12          128,579
Azura S Hill 202          1.78          507,367
Westmarch L Forest 201          2.06          590,362
Huronire S Forest 177          2.04          491,495
Keppen Plains 159          3.56          728,480
The Wastes Plains 154          3.02      1,111,063
Silbeaur L Forest 151          2.24      1,467,031
Trome Plains 146          2.62            58,636
Calumnex Plains 144          2.75          158,013
Vindorel Plains 134          4.23          424,933
Djebeli Plains 131          5.19          274,562
Norweld L Mt 131          1.43          395,541
Middle Kingdom L Forest 130          2.02          418,770
Pamanyallpa S Hill 113          2.54          128,168
Ursor L Hill 112          2.13          304,334
Taomist S Mt 107          1.84          163,434
Zanpur Plains 102          3.42          226,802
Tallimar S Forest 101          2.86          578,674
Ragallon S Hill 96          2.09          159,687
Qarosslan L Hill 92          1.30          212,104
Oarnamly S Forest 88          4.71          204,086
Poisoned Isle L Hill 82          2.53          272,754
Lapo'a Lua L Forest 63          1.78          192,472
Newlands S Hill 54          3.41            65,164
Kem Plains 53          3.84          296,825
Gremont L Hill 48          2.41          236,977
Laoshin Plains 40          2.04            61,160
Tor Carrock L Hill 36          2.34          370,328
Pirate Isles L Hill 34          3.39            71,439
Tamarin Plains 33          1.72            30,885
Larn Plains 23          3.45            81,259
Kingsland L Mt 20          3.15          110,524
Chulbran S Forest 19          2.70          189,398
Orken Coast L Mt 19          2.08          103,679
Kul Tar L Forest 14          1.08          100,693
Almenly L Forest 8          2.09            11,528
Keshalia Plains 7          4.12            13,489
Mal Motsha L Forest 6          2.65              3,467
Grand Total 21925          2.44    46,403,880

The most active squares (the data above is sorted by number of battles on the square) were not necessarily the most deadly squares - in fact one might expect that on plains squares only a single troop might be killed in each battle as a frequent tactic was to hit with cav and occupy with a single troop just afterwards!

Posted By: Hucbold
Date Posted: 04 Mar 2020 at 15:24
@Eowan. It would be a lot of work to divide the map into cells around the squares. I expect there would be a highish correlation .... but if there wasn't where would that lead you?


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