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IRON/RUM vs TCol/VAST War Stats

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Mafro View Drop Down
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    Posted: 31 Dec 2018 at 00:39
So, those that know me know that I like stats...those unambiguous, immutable details that are just one step beneath "damn lies".

For those that also like stats, here's a spreadsheet tracking basic stats of the IRON/RUM vs. TCol/VAST war. I'll update it...intermittently...more frequently if people respond with interest to this post, less frequently or not at all if that doesn't happen.


Quick rundown of how the spreadsheet works:
  • The Baseline tab holds the first data set that I captured, from 12/26/2018
  • The Current tab holds the latest data set that I captured, dated on the sheet
  • The Numeric Delta tab is the numeric difference between these two data sets
  • The Percent Delta tab is the percent difference between these two data sets
  • The Archive tabs hold previous data sets that I've captured, in case folks want to see what happened along the way

And here's my quick read of the past 4 days:
IRON: Up 2 towns and 10k pop
RUM: Down 6k pop

TCol: Up 1 member, 10 towns, and 50k pop
VAST: Down 4 towns and 35k pop

As always, if those that know what's driving these stat changes share their insights, that'd be cool.

Yours,

Mafro
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote eowan the short Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 31 Dec 2018 at 08:03
Ask and you will receive :) 

I haven't been all that active recently but here's my understanding of events so far:
The reason for the drop in stats in VAST is primarily due to us moving non-combatants out after the siege of Aileas. 
For those who do not know, Aileas was a semi-inactive three town player. She now has two towns because Runelord in his infinite wisdom decided a three town player with no military to speak of was a valid target in war so razed her largest town (Aileas had several suspicious persons reports around the time so they were aware of her lack of military capability). 
Perhaps if either her or her sitter had been able to be active on illy we would have been able to break this siege however, both of them currently face significant real life difficulties which are preventing them from logging on and the town was not in our cluster.
He would have razed a second of her towns but certain members of Yarr! spoke out against this. 

Purple Smurf also launched an attack on Jenny the Unready, at the time this was a one town, unaligned account that happened to be the alt of Jenny the Rogue who is a member of VAST. 
Jenny the Unready has since moved to KnOW and in light of the attacks against accounts that would have been in the past considered off limits by any player with an ounce of moral fibre in their body, we have advised those who wish to be non-combatants to leave VAST for the duration of the war. 

I object to the entering of TCol into the same team as VAST as we are completely separate entities. In fact, both Twisted Fate and I asked Grombrindal to offer peace to RUM after his declaration as we would rather fight RUM on our own and have continued to ask him to. 
However, citing the continued involvement of Iron in the conflict, TCol have continued to pursue war with RUM and have apparently razed three RUM towns. Yay to them. But if they could move along and fight their own wars separately from ours, that would be great. 
With regards to the Iron involvement, this originally came from Hellie's accounts in Iron (sats, and the sats of her daughter etc) but after the declaration of war by TCol and the razings, they have moved to a more general state of mobilisation. 

Iron stepping in led to RUM's first siege on a VAST account with any sort of military in it and they are currently in the process of losing a fair few troops as a result.




Edited by eowan the short - 31 Dec 2018 at 08:06
This is the thread that never ends, yes it goes on and on my friend. Some person started it, not knowing what it was, and we'll continue posting on it forever just because...
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Grom Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 31 Dec 2018 at 12:41
I also object to Tcol and Vast being combined. We stepped in hoping that it would return this conflict to a fair fight between two medium alliances. I.e. hoping to pursuade Rum to be sporting and play without Iron support. We do not, however, have any formal ties with Vast, and no real issue with Rum outside of the one mentioned above (aside from a single war runner from another war).

On a sidenote, just like last time we had these kind of stats, I would like to point out that member and city count in large alliance shifts a lot regardless of there being a war or not. Meaning these stats will never give a clear view of war effects. For that you would need to collect battle reports.

Edited by Grom - 31 Dec 2018 at 12:42
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Mafro Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 31 Dec 2018 at 20:51
Updated stats: IRON/RUM vs. TCol/VAST War Stats

My quick read...over the last day...:
IRON has gained 10k pop
RUM has gained 4k pop

TCol has lost 1 member, 8 towns, and 50k pop
VAST has lost 1 town, pop unchanged

One other area I find interesting: RUM's Def score has increased by 73% in the past 5 days, while VAST's Atk and Def scores have increased 23% and 22% respectively. This is a total gain of about 480k points (Atk + Def) by VAST and 150k points by RUM.

My guess is this is the result of Runelord's attempts to siege GoldenLion, sieges which have either been broken or withdrawn, but which have cost GoldenLion nearly half his population (~55k down to ~30k), which is roughly 5% of VAST's total population.

Obviously, I can't say what percent of RUM's military has been destroyed to achieve this population drop, whether the drop is meaningful (i.e. res + prestige = pop), and whether or not taking this level of losses is sustainable.... Dead

Have there been any specific goals stated by either side (e.g. to push one group out of a given area)? If so, it would be interesting to see which of those goals are being accomplished.

***

In response to Eowan and Grom...

The grouping of alliances into sides is mainly for convenience and to show "the big picture". It isn't intended as a commentary on how closely two groups that share the same enemies are coordinating.

If another alliance ends up going to war with all (or even most) members of a given side, then I'll probably start tracking their stats too as part of the opposite side.

If a combatant makes peace with all (or even most) members of the opposing side, then I'll probably stop tracking their stats.

Of course, if others care to present the picture in a different way, my posts in no way prevent that. Wink
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Mafro Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 01 Jan 2019 at 22:55
Updated stats: IRON/RUM vs. TCol/VAST War Stats

My quick read over the past day:
IRON has gained 1 town and 8k pop
RUM has gained 1 town and 4k pop

TCol has gained 1 town and 8k pop
VAST has gained 1 town and 3k pop

No change in Def scores over the past day, which suggests a lapse in armed contact between the two sides.

Furthermore, I received the following message from Mes-kalam-dug, which I assume is meant to be shared:

Hello Mafro,

I have noticed you are summarizing proceedings in some of our Wars.

And for your information I can add the fiollowing facts to this:

I have a couple of RUM cities razed before 26.12. Unfortunately I have mostly deleted reports of those. But I will forward what data i have available. 2 Cities of Dak and 1 of Optimus Prime razed. 1 City of Dak has been forced to exo. I think that has been Dak's capital as it did contain elementals.

I have sent what "proof" I still have. Those where I have been ready to raze have been razed, but I don't have those reports anymore.

LG Mes

If anyone else cares to share, feel free to post directly to this thread. I don't mind passing through reports, but I probably don't add much value to the information by doing so. Tongue
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Mafro Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 02 Jan 2019 at 20:39
Updated stats: IRON/RUM vs. TCol/VAST War Stats

My quick read over the past day:
IRON has no change, except a 32k increase in Def score
RUM has lost 1 town and 5k pop

TCol has lost 1 town yet gained 5k pop
VAST has lost 1 member, 2 towns, and 7k pop

In looking back at the alliance growth charts, it appears that VAST had roughly 2.1MM pop on Dec 10th, the day RUM declared on them, and they are now down to 560k. That's a numeric drop of 1.5MM pop and a percent drop of 73%. Membership has gone from about 35 to 19.

Looking at the same metric for RUM, they had about 3.4MM pop on Dec 10th and have dropped to about 2.8MM. That's a numeric drop of 600k pop and a percent drop of 18%. Membership has gone from just over 20 members to 16.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Mafro Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 04 Jan 2019 at 19:47
Updated stats: IRON/RUM vs. TCol/VAST War Stats

My quick read over the past two days:
IRON has added a town and lost 1k pop, and has gained 32k Def
RUM has added two towns and 10k pop

TCol has lost 17 towns and 420k pop, and gained 800k Def
VAST has lost 4 members, 5 towns, and and 13k pop

Either TCol has traded one or more high-pop, high-town members for low-pop, low-town members, had some towns razed, or there's a migration happening...or something.

Regarding TCol's jump in Def score, I saw a report of a successful defense of Thranduril's town of Shiva against 160k knights...that'd probably do it.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Mafro Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 06 Jan 2019 at 23:42
Updated stats: IRON/RUM vs. TCol/VAST War Stats

My quick read over the past two days:
IRON has gained 2 towns and 28k pop
RUM has gained 7k pop

TCol has lost 1 member, 7 towns, and 110k pop
VAST has lost 1 town and gained 5k Def
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Jug Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 08 Jan 2019 at 18:32
Awesome i like reading these 👍
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Grom Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 08 Jan 2019 at 21:09
Originally posted by Mafro Mafro wrote:

Updated stats: IRON/RUM vs. TCol/VAST War Stats

<span style=": rgb255, 248, 229;">My quick read over the past two days:</span>
<span style=": rgb255, 248, 229;">IRON has gained 2 towns and 28k pop</span>
<span style=": rgb255, 248, 229;">RUM has gained 7k pop</span>
<span style=": rgb255, 248, 229;">
</span>
<span style=": rgb255, 248, 229;">TCol has lost 1 member, 7 towns, and 110k pop</span>
<span style=": rgb255, 248, 229;">VAST has lost 1 town and gained 5k Def</span>


As mentioned before, these stats have nothing to do with war effects. We have around 80 members, and sometimes one or two drop. Either temporary or permanent (in this case I think 2 ex-sin accounts that wish to remain in the BL dropped). Tcol isn't actively targetting, nor is it targetted by, either of these alliances. The defense spike was an Aesir direct attack hitting our defenses.
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