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For statistics addicts - part I

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Hucbold View Drop Down
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    Posted: 04 Mar 2020 at 15:24
@Eowan. It would be a lot of work to divide the map into cells around the squares. I expect there would be a highish correlation .... but if there wasn't where would that lead you?
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Hucbold Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 04 Mar 2020 at 15:23
Some more stats: 

Region Terrain Battles Kill Ratio Total dead
Meilla Plains 1913          3.25      1,119,513
Lan Larosh Plains 1393          2.52      3,977,143
Puchuallpa L Forest 1273          2.46      1,821,897
High Hills S Hill 929          2.63      1,165,613
Glanhad L Forest 927          2.33      1,768,875
Northmarch S Hill 927          2.33      1,768,875
 Long White Plains 869          2.61      1,912,191
Turalia Plains 814          2.19      2,522,436
Kal Tirikan Plains 811          2.53      1,087,293
Fellandire Plains 756          2.58          834,779
Kumala Plains 747          2.71          913,790
Elijal Plains 679          2.91          851,255
Freemorn Plains 668          2.53          857,310
Arran Plains 560          1.86          435,520
Perrigor Plains 545          2.89      1,783,929
Clarien S Forest 517          2.74          536,650
Jurgor Plains 446          1.83          561,210
Pawanallpa Plains 434          3.19          141,387
Lucerna Plains 356          2.94          443,642
Kormandly S Forest 341          2.65      1,473,723
Farra Isle Plains 297          2.92          378,369
Strendur S Forest 288          2.22          517,699
Western Realms S Hill 287          2.64      1,064,273
Coanhara S Forest 260          2.51          592,248
Wolgast Plains 256          3.28      1,268,058
Rill Archipilago S Mt 253          1.82      1,706,094
Shardlands Plains 247          3.44          493,015
Farshards S Mt 238          1.54      2,287,183
Aindara Plains 226          3.32          596,920
Windlost Plains 221          1.97          578,828
Stormstone Plains 217          2.12          128,579
Azura S Hill 202          1.78          507,367
Westmarch L Forest 201          2.06          590,362
Huronire S Forest 177          2.04          491,495
Keppen Plains 159          3.56          728,480
The Wastes Plains 154          3.02      1,111,063
Silbeaur L Forest 151          2.24      1,467,031
Trome Plains 146          2.62            58,636
Calumnex Plains 144          2.75          158,013
Vindorel Plains 134          4.23          424,933
Djebeli Plains 131          5.19          274,562
Norweld L Mt 131          1.43          395,541
Middle Kingdom L Forest 130          2.02          418,770
Pamanyallpa S Hill 113          2.54          128,168
Ursor L Hill 112          2.13          304,334
Taomist S Mt 107          1.84          163,434
Zanpur Plains 102          3.42          226,802
Tallimar S Forest 101          2.86          578,674
Ragallon S Hill 96          2.09          159,687
Qarosslan L Hill 92          1.30          212,104
Oarnamly S Forest 88          4.71          204,086
Poisoned Isle L Hill 82          2.53          272,754
Lapo'a Lua L Forest 63          1.78          192,472
Newlands S Hill 54          3.41            65,164
Kem Plains 53          3.84          296,825
Gremont L Hill 48          2.41          236,977
Laoshin Plains 40          2.04            61,160
Tor Carrock L Hill 36          2.34          370,328
Pirate Isles L Hill 34          3.39            71,439
Tamarin Plains 33          1.72            30,885
Larn Plains 23          3.45            81,259
Kingsland L Mt 20          3.15          110,524
Chulbran S Forest 19          2.70          189,398
Orken Coast L Mt 19          2.08          103,679
Kul Tar L Forest 14          1.08          100,693
Almenly L Forest 8          2.09            11,528
Keshalia Plains 7          4.12            13,489
Mal Motsha L Forest 6          2.65              3,467
Grand Total 21925          2.44    46,403,880

The most active squares (the data above is sorted by number of battles on the square) were not necessarily the most deadly squares - in fact one might expect that on plains squares only a single troop might be killed in each battle as a frequent tactic was to hit with cav and occupy with a single troop just afterwards!
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Snook Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 04 Mar 2020 at 01:34
Sweet nice work Hucbold
now if the DEVS would mak a page only for history of tournies as far back as they want to go :)
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote eowan the short Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 03 Mar 2020 at 23:10
Any thoughts on using the towns data to produce some data showing how town density in the surroundings of a square correlated with death toll?
This is the thread that never ends, yes it goes on and on my friend. Some person started it, not knowing what it was, and we'll continue posting on it forever just because...
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Hucbold Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 03 Mar 2020 at 22:35
I'd also make the point that changing the squares just before the start makes a lottery out of what claims to be a strategic game. Strategy is about planning. People are now building troops for the next tourney without knowing what type of terrain they will be fighting on. To me it would make more sense to change the squares immediately AFTER the end of the tourney so you can PLAN for the next one - so what if people move towns - is that not strategy at work? I'd also like to see a more even distribution of terrain types AND some squares on buildings (to kill cav) but that's just me!
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Hucbold Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 03 Mar 2020 at 22:27
@Wartow - There's also a shortage of squares in NW Elgea:

NW Elgea 5
NE Elgea 10
SW Elgea 10
SE Elgea 12
NW BL 9
NE BL 6
SW BL 7
SE BL 9

Those regions in NW Elgea are biggggg. Lets start a campaign to split some of them?????
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Hucbold Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 03 Mar 2020 at 22:25
@Thirion - I'd love to give you that but the stats are only available in the way the devs publish the data. Of course cav get better kill ratios but there's no way to identify cav attacks versus bows or spears or whatever. Ratios don't matter! Time on squares does. Devs don't tell us how much time players get on squares. We do know alliances times on squares ... and RUM won. Some of us like statistics too! .... and we're stuck with trying to draw inferences from incomplete data - just like RL!
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Thirion Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 03 Mar 2020 at 22:16
Thanks a lot for the numbers. I would really like a "Defense by player" statistic if thats possible.

I do think though that you have to be a bit careful with the numbers and thus your conclusions. There are cheap (e.g. sentinels and kobolds) and expensive (cav) units - thus you are going to get a lot different ratios depending on the units you use. In my opinion it would be better to use "Kills/gold per hour" / "Losses/gold per hour" or "Kills/training cost" / "Losses/training cost".

Even with that you have to be careful with the numbers as there are a lot of other factor like the terrain you (have to) fight on, the gear you are using, the level of commanders and last the goal you are trying to archieve. Its easy to get a good kill ratio by attacking with cav on plains - its a lot harder to win a plains square.

I (Thirion+Ellania) used a Sentinel-only setup with lvl 10 commanders (only forced march), no gear and all of them on occupy. The upside is that it is really cheap and i can spam squares a lot - the downside is that the kill ratio sucks. I do think though that it is a good strategy with the current tournament meta (not putting to much on squares and instead spamming them) and i got a lot of time with it. I am going to try another approach in the next tourney i compete in.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (2) Thanks(2)   Quote Hucbold Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 03 Mar 2020 at 22:02
Thanks Wartow, I meant to make that point - here's the square distribution for Elgea

Large Forest 3
Large Hill 3
Large Mountain 1
Plains 24
Small Forest 1
Small Hill 3
Small Mountain 2

and for BL:

Large Forest 6
Large Hill 3
Large Mountain 2
Plains 8
Small Forest 7
Small Hill 4
Small Mountain 1

Something wrong with their random number generator in Elgea ????
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote Wartow Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 03 Mar 2020 at 20:54
We [SkB] had A LOT of plains [Freemorn, Kal T, Keppen, Lan Larosh, Meilla, The Wastes] for which we were competing.  Only The Western Realms and Tor Carrock gave us a break with a small and large hill respectively.  The random location of totems did not provide favorable terrains in our corner of Elgea.

Thanks for the numbers!
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