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Timing of the larger wars

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Wartow View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Wartow Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 21 Sep 2017 at 13:33
Originally posted by Starry Starry wrote:

*waves to SC*  :)

I believe there is something to this theory.   We've noticed a little dip in the summer months with our members due to vacations, kids at home, etc. and it does appear members are more active in the fall.    So, SC, a fall event held by the Devs would fit right into this trend.   *hint, hint*

Here is to hoping that the Hellmouths are much more chaotic than previous NPC activities when fully released upon the game.  A good common enemy has the ability to put our differences in perspective.  

Illy imitates reality...
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote OssianII Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 21 Sep 2017 at 14:17
Contents deleted. Not relevant to tab

Edited by OssianII - 22 Sep 2017 at 09:48
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Jejune Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 21 Sep 2017 at 14:54
Originally posted by GM Stormcrow GM Stormcrow wrote:

Will also take a look at login data; anecdotally, is your 'higher engagement' due to kids-back-to-school/uni, returning from holidays to a big fresh troop-pile-and-itching-to-use-them etc?

SC

For sure, getting back from vacations/holidays and getting the kids back in school is a factor. 

As for troops, they do pile up when the SINdicate finds itself in the rare position of being at peace with the server for an extended period of time, though I can't say that I recall a time where a war declaration was spurred on primarily because of a troop glut. Our war declarations are generally strategy- and conquest-driven, with the secondary intent of engaging the server and adding user-generated content into the game (often to the shagrin of our enemies). 

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote GM Stormcrow Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 12 Oct 2017 at 16:32
Just to provide some data supporting this hypothesis.

Bear in mind that this is data for 7 and half years: eg March 2010 when we started the system of official inter-alliance war declarations, up until a couple of days back (October 10th 2017) - so it excludes most of this years' War Decs that will likely come between now and the New Year.

So, if anything, this graph under-reports the prevalence of wars kicking-off in the autumn; but supports the hypothesis very strongly.



This is an interesting thread, and I would love to hear from anyone else who has thoughts (either evidential, or anecdotal) to add.

Best,

SC
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Wartow Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 12 Oct 2017 at 16:50
Did you eliminate any declarations against DEVS?

What about a minimum duration for the status?  Eliminate all declarations that lasted for less than 24 hours?  A week?

My theory is that the aggression is related to Christmas shopping experiences in department stores. 


Edited by Wartow - 12 Oct 2017 at 16:53
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Jejune Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 12 Oct 2017 at 16:56
The data supports the anecdotal evidence, to be sure.

And it makes sense that war declarations are at a minimum in Q1 and Q2, since wars in Illyriad often stretch on from Q3/early-Q4 well into Q1. After peace/surrender, there is a lull while alliances rebuild and take some time off from all the launches, and further disruption in the summer for Northern hemisphere players as school comes to an end and people begin taking vacations/holidays.

Q3 is clearly war season. It's playing out even as we speak! 

Thanks, SC! This was great to see on a graph.


Edited by Jejune - 12 Oct 2017 at 16:57

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote GM Stormcrow Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 12 Oct 2017 at 17:28
Originally posted by Wartow Wartow wrote:

Did you eliminate any declarations against DEVS?

What about a minimum duration for the status?  Eliminate all declarations that lasted for less than 24 hours?  A week?

I didn't exclude war decs against DEVS, but it's a small number in the grand scheme of things (41 of them, less than 1% of the total).

I could certainly apply a minimum time for each dec's status, but am not sure what that would show in support of, or against the hypothesis; as the attempt is to statistically look at general displays of aggression, rather than quantifying the depth thereof.

Originally posted by Jejune Jejune wrote:

And it makes sense that war declarations are at a minimum in Q1 and Q2, since wars in Illyriad often stretch on from Q3/early-Q4 well into Q1. 
Absolutely, wars that might kick off in the latter quarter of the year might well spill over into the first quarter (or half) of the subsequent year.

Originally posted by Jejune Jejune wrote:

Q3 is clearly war season. It's playing out even as we speak! 
It appears so!

Best,

SC
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Corwin Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 12 Oct 2017 at 21:12
I remember at least 1 alliance declaring war on almost every alliance in the game within a few days. That surely must have influence on these statistics. 

What happened  to these rascals anyway?
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Rill Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 15 Oct 2017 at 16:07
I originally thought it might have to do with the ending of the food bonus from autumn to winter.  Players shed armies in preparation to lower taxes for winter.  However, the seasonal bonuses are so small compared to all the gold floating around in the game, and so many large armies are run negative on gold, this doesn't seem like a very likely explanation anymore.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Rill Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 15 Oct 2017 at 16:17
It's also worth noting that in my experience the large wars that are INITIATED in September and October are often PLANNED (in terms of diplomacy, creating coalitions) during the summer months or even beginning in the spring.

Of course I have generally been on the sidelines of war planning, so those who have been more active, please pipe in with your thoughts.
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