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TCol vs. Aesir War Stats

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Tensmoor View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Tensmoor Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 29 Jan 2018 at 13:18
So if you were able to see where players came from/went to? That info is available by analysing successive days data files.

I have been thinking about sieges in general when I'm not woodworking/exercising/broadband problem chasing and there seems to be no data generally available apart from the GC Notifications/Herald Siege page and those only give you info about when they start not when/how they end. Whilst comparing the Herald page over time could give you an indication of when a siege ended I can see no method of being able to discern why it ended. Did the occupy time finish, were the troops recalled, did the target come out and break it, did outside forces come to the targets aid breaking the siege? Thing is, being a non-military player this sort of thing doesn't really rock my boat which means it would be quite low on my to do list - much more important is deciding if I should stay or go.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Ten Kulch Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 29 Jan 2018 at 15:20
I think much of the debate is because the commentary is focused on members and population. In early war, the roster does get cleaned of inactives and players wishing to avoid war.

By the mid-war, which is where the real fighting happens between active players, there might be a million troops lost fighting over a single city, which is insignificant in the population stats. The focus is on armies, which makes the defense and attack stats much more relevant than cities and population.

That gridlock usually breaks at the end stages of war. If the defending alliance is depleted of troops, suddenly the attacking alliance is able to siege at will. The number of sieges spikes, causing significant city and population losses. Surrenders begin to be processed (or players flee the losing alliance), leading to a shrinking roster and major city and population loss. Even so, the question is usually who is leaving, because many old alliances have inactives on the roster that can obscure more important departures.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Mafro Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 29 Jan 2018 at 16:56
A lot of good points made here.

To Grom's point that the data fluctuates, I totally agree. You need multiple data points over a period of time in order to gain confidence in whatever trend is taking place. Any given data point is fairly limited, especially if looking only at members, towns, or population, without taking into account elements such as Attack and Defense.

And that brings up TK's point, that different numbers move at different points of the war. In the RE-IRON conflict, we just saw a significant battle reflected in those numbers, though it remains to be seen if this is a tipping point in the war or along a front that can be exploited to destroy the means of production (i.e. towns).

That said, all this data is being posted publicly, so any and all are able and welcome to draw their own conclusions, and share them if they wish. If we have insights from the participants, even better, though we all realize that such insights carry with them basic cognitive bias, the baggage we all carry.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Ten Kulch Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 29 Jan 2018 at 18:58
If wars could be told with only numbers, there would be no need for historians. Even so, many key events will be forever buried beneath the fog of war. Did the raze of dittobite really affect vCrow's morale enough to inspire their surrender to fCrow? Perhaps the last straw was the battle where Tinkinator's war wagon survived the final onslaught by Ryklaw. Or was vCrow just weary of war, recognized that they could no longer stop razes, and that battle just happened to be an acceptable stopping point? We can spin stories about events, and interpret which ones were significant, but many times the real information is simply lost forever.

Case in point: within the Allied countries, it is a commonly accepted narrative that the atomic bomb ended Japanese resistance in WWII. More recent research points to the idea that the Japanese hoped to have the Soviets intercede to help them achieve less punitive surrender negotiations. When the Soviets declared war to force an end to hostilities, the emperor recognized that their last hope for a graceful exit had been cut off, and Japan quickly surrendered. Those events have been chronicled and studied by professional scholars for 70 years, and we still aren't exactly sure what happened. The truth just vanished into the fog of war.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Tensmoor Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 29 Jan 2018 at 19:40
Very true TK.

What must also be taken into account is that all forms of communication have varying amounts of misunderstanding almost built into them. Two people reading exactly the same text can (and do) understand different things. So given people from different countries, backgrounds and with differing experiences it is only to be expected that differing conclusions will be drawn.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dabrelis Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 29 Jan 2018 at 20:40
That is fair enough.

However as a neutral newb observer to your art of war I can say that without Mafro’s work I would be even oblivious that war actually IS happening. We lack bards here in Illyriad singing their praises to war heroes and mourning losses for the razed cities.
Some of this happens on gc, but gets buried under “what you eatin?’“. I believe lot of it happens in alliance chats, but I don’t see them.

So, we have some numbers posted and I am glad for at least that..

Edited by Dabrelis - 29 Jan 2018 at 20:41
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Zenorra Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 29 Jan 2018 at 23:19
I'm 100% sure that what I read was offensive, to anyone, anywhere. Oops, except the person who wrote it.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote Mafro Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 01 Feb 2018 at 02:17
Day 13. Looks like some mighty battles were had in the past 24 hours. TCol's Defense score has increased by 610k while Aesir's Attack score has increased by 760k. Based on the stats page it appears those most heavily involved were Thranduril, Golradir, and Mes-kalam-dug on TCol's side, G0DsDestroyer, Relden, and Trixon on Aesir's side.

Insights from those in the know are welcome!
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Grom Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 01 Feb 2018 at 10:51
2 sieges were conducted against Aesir in Ragalon. One resulted in a raze roughly 15 minutes after start of bombardment and was only lightly contested. The other siege was heavily contested and ultimately broken (only the block remains) by a combined effort of Aesir members with help from a confed alliance.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Mafro Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 01 Feb 2018 at 12:41
Originally posted by Grom Grom wrote:

The other siege was heavily contested and ultimately broken (only the block remains) by a combined effort of Aesir members with help from a confed alliance.

A confed alliance? May I ask who? Also, should we treat this conflict as having merged with the greater Grand Alliance SIN war?
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