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Timing of the larger wars

Printed From: Illyriad
Category: Miscellaneous
Forum Name: The Caravanserai
Forum Description: A place to just chat about whatever takes your fancy, whether it's about Illyriad or not.
URL: http://forum.illyriad.co.uk/forum_posts.asp?TID=7306
Printed Date: 15 Dec 2017 at 21:33
Software Version: Web Wiz Forums 11.10 - http://www.webwizforums.com


Topic: Timing of the larger wars
Posted By: GM Stormcrow
Subject: Timing of the larger wars
Date Posted: 20 Sep 2017 at 21:57
Hi All,

In another thread I took some time to jog down memory lane, re-reading old war threads from the various larger conflicts that have occurred.

http://forum.illyriad.co.uk/the-history-of-illyriad-incomplete_topic3293_post74034.html#74034" rel="nofollow - One post that caught my eye  was from 2014.  

Originally posted by Rill Rill wrote:

Yes, there is predictably a large war at the end of summer/beginning of fall.  There are sometimes wars at other times, of course.

As far as I'm aware that's pretty much held true each and every year (larger wars initiating around about this time of year).  I would be interested in people's thoughts about why this might be the case.

Thoughts?

SC



Replies:
Posted By: GM Stormcrow
Date Posted: 20 Sep 2017 at 22:02
Originally posted by Canesrule Canesrule wrote:

Why SC, Because "Its all about The U"

I considered that, but many/most Illy players aren't at University afaik.


Posted By: Canesrule
Date Posted: 20 Sep 2017 at 22:43
The University of Miami Hurricanes known as The U.


Posted By: The Reaper
Date Posted: 20 Sep 2017 at 23:09
It's mainly due to them building up their armies, and the profit margin to keep them is about to bust in my opinion, so burn them on wars. 


Posted By: Ten Kulch
Date Posted: 21 Sep 2017 at 00:09
Originally posted by GM Stormcrow GM Stormcrow wrote:

Originally posted by Canesrule Canesrule wrote:

Why SC, Because "Its all about The U"
I considered that, but many/most Illy players aren't at University afaik.

No, but many Illyriad players probably have kids and/or go on longer summer vacations.

Is it definitely concluded that major wars tend to happen at the boundary of summer and autumn?

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Check out my blog, http://illywarmonger.blogspot.com" rel="nofollow - Warmongering in Illyriad for self-defense techniques, military city construction, and PvP strategies.


Posted By: Jejune
Date Posted: 21 Sep 2017 at 00:13
In the SINdicate, we usually see slightly lower engagement levels among our ranks in the northern hemisphere's summer (and late summer, more specifically). Once September rolls around, engagement tends to spike and then continues steadily through the Christmas holiday into the new year. So, you want to ride that engagement wave as much as possible.

Not sure if the game devs see similar patterns or not server-wide, but it's true for our group.


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http://elgea.illyriad.co.uk/a/p/263810" rel="nofollow">


Posted By: GM Stormcrow
Date Posted: 21 Sep 2017 at 01:08
Originally posted by Ten Kulch Ten Kulch wrote:

 
Is it definitely concluded that major wars tend to happen at the boundary of summer and autumn?
Anecdotally only; however, from re-reading the old war threads, I'm pretty sure that most of them started in this period.  However, I'll run a historic analysis on war declarations by month and post the results here with some commentary over the next week or so.

SC


Posted By: GM Stormcrow
Date Posted: 21 Sep 2017 at 02:09
Originally posted by Jejune Jejune wrote:

In the SINdicate, we usually see slightly lower engagement levels among our ranks in the northern hemisphere's summer... 

Not sure if the game devs see similar patterns or not server-wide, but it's true for our group.
Will also take a look at login data; anecdotally, is your 'higher engagement' due to kids-back-to-school/uni, returning from holidays to a big fresh troop-pile-and-itching-to-use-them etc?

SC


Posted By: Eresh
Date Posted: 21 Sep 2017 at 02:30
On most multiplayer games/online communities/etc. there's a higher activity seen in the fall and winter. I'm guessing it's a combination of people enjoying real life for the summer and vacations, etc. and stuck inside for worse weather during the colder seasons. With more activity comes more issues and conflicts that start wars.. not to mention simply more time to fight the wars.

My previous game (that evil "E" one) the servers that started in Sept-Nov traditionally had more people and lasted longer with better pvp in general. An older mmorpg I play now and then on private servers usually sees a MASSIVE influx of new servers opening and players joining them for the fall. So much so in fact that they're known to open around this time and shutdown due to lack of players around May-June.


Posted By: Starry
Date Posted: 21 Sep 2017 at 02:56
*waves to SC*  :)

I believe there is something to this theory.   We've noticed a little dip in the summer months with our members due to vacations, kids at home, etc. and it does appear members are more active in the fall.    So, SC, a fall event held by the Devs would fit right into this trend.   *hint, hint*


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CEO, Harmless?
Founder of Toothless?

"Truth never dies."
-HonoredMule



Posted By: Wartow
Date Posted: 21 Sep 2017 at 13:33
Originally posted by Starry Starry wrote:

*waves to SC*  :)

I believe there is something to this theory.   We've noticed a little dip in the summer months with our members due to vacations, kids at home, etc. and it does appear members are more active in the fall.    So, SC, a fall event held by the Devs would fit right into this trend.   *hint, hint*

Here is to hoping that the Hellmouths are much more chaotic than previous NPC activities when fully released upon the game.  A good common enemy has the ability to put our differences in perspective.  

Illy imitates reality...


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Posted By: OssianII
Date Posted: 21 Sep 2017 at 14:17
Contents deleted. Not relevant to tab


Posted By: Jejune
Date Posted: 21 Sep 2017 at 14:54
Originally posted by GM Stormcrow GM Stormcrow wrote:

Will also take a look at login data; anecdotally, is your 'higher engagement' due to kids-back-to-school/uni, returning from holidays to a big fresh troop-pile-and-itching-to-use-them etc?

SC

For sure, getting back from vacations/holidays and getting the kids back in school is a factor. 

As for troops, they do pile up when the SINdicate finds itself in the rare position of being at peace with the server for an extended period of time, though I can't say that I recall a time where a war declaration was spurred on primarily because of a troop glut. Our war declarations are generally strategy- and conquest-driven, with the secondary intent of engaging the server and adding user-generated content into the game (often to the shagrin of our enemies). 


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http://elgea.illyriad.co.uk/a/p/263810" rel="nofollow">


Posted By: GM Stormcrow
Date Posted: 12 Oct 2017 at 16:32
Just to provide some data supporting this hypothesis.

Bear in mind that this is data for 7 and half years: eg March 2010 when we started the system of official inter-alliance war declarations, up until a couple of days back (October 10th 2017) - so it excludes most of this years' War Decs that will likely come between now and the New Year.

So, if anything, this graph under-reports the prevalence of wars kicking-off in the autumn; but supports the hypothesis very strongly.



This is an interesting thread, and I would love to hear from anyone else who has thoughts (either evidential, or anecdotal) to add.

Best,

SC


Posted By: Wartow
Date Posted: 12 Oct 2017 at 16:50
Did you eliminate any declarations against DEVS?

What about a minimum duration for the status?  Eliminate all declarations that lasted for less than 24 hours?  A week?

My theory is that the aggression is related to Christmas shopping experiences in department stores. 


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Posted By: Jejune
Date Posted: 12 Oct 2017 at 16:56
The data supports the anecdotal evidence, to be sure.

And it makes sense that war declarations are at a minimum in Q1 and Q2, since wars in Illyriad often stretch on from Q3/early-Q4 well into Q1. After peace/surrender, there is a lull while alliances rebuild and take some time off from all the launches, and further disruption in the summer for Northern hemisphere players as school comes to an end and people begin taking vacations/holidays.

Q3 is clearly war season. It's playing out even as we speak! 

Thanks, SC! This was great to see on a graph.


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http://elgea.illyriad.co.uk/a/p/263810" rel="nofollow">


Posted By: GM Stormcrow
Date Posted: 12 Oct 2017 at 17:28
Originally posted by Wartow Wartow wrote:

Did you eliminate any declarations against DEVS?

What about a minimum duration for the status?  Eliminate all declarations that lasted for less than 24 hours?  A week?

I didn't exclude war decs against DEVS, but it's a small number in the grand scheme of things (41 of them, less than 1% of the total).

I could certainly apply a minimum time for each dec's status, but am not sure what that would show in support of, or against the hypothesis; as the attempt is to statistically look at general displays of aggression, rather than quantifying the depth thereof.

Originally posted by Jejune Jejune wrote:

And it makes sense that war declarations are at a minimum in Q1 and Q2, since wars in Illyriad often stretch on from Q3/early-Q4 well into Q1. 
Absolutely, wars that might kick off in the latter quarter of the year might well spill over into the first quarter (or half) of the subsequent year.

Originally posted by Jejune Jejune wrote:

Q3 is clearly war season. It's playing out even as we speak! 
It appears so!

Best,

SC


Posted By: Corwin
Date Posted: 12 Oct 2017 at 21:12
I remember at least 1 alliance declaring war on almost every alliance in the game within a few days. That surely must have influence on these statistics. 

What happened  to these rascals anyway?


Posted By: Rill
Date Posted: 15 Oct 2017 at 16:07
I originally thought it might have to do with the ending of the food bonus from autumn to winter.  Players shed armies in preparation to lower taxes for winter.  However, the seasonal bonuses are so small compared to all the gold floating around in the game, and so many large armies are run negative on gold, this doesn't seem like a very likely explanation anymore.


Posted By: Rill
Date Posted: 15 Oct 2017 at 16:17
It's also worth noting that in my experience the large wars that are INITIATED in September and October are often PLANNED (in terms of diplomacy, creating coalitions) during the summer months or even beginning in the spring.

Of course I have generally been on the sidelines of war planning, so those who have been more active, please pipe in with your thoughts.


Posted By: Rill
Date Posted: 15 Oct 2017 at 16:52
Also worth noting, whether one wants to call it a Pax Crowana or atttribute it to the opening of the Broken Lands (more likely), there were no major wars in falls of 2014 or 2015, iirc.


Posted By: Celebrant
Date Posted: 15 Oct 2017 at 17:10
Wars are coming with south winds.




Posted By: Gragnog
Date Posted: 15 Oct 2017 at 18:22
Well, from the last few wars I can honestly say "We were just bored and decided to take down some big alliances". Best you start preparing Rill. NCrow is next.

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Kaggen is my human half


Posted By: Nokigon
Date Posted: 15 Oct 2017 at 18:41
Originally posted by Rill Rill wrote:

Also worth noting, whether one wants to call it a Pax Crowana or atttribute it to the opening of the Broken Lands (more likely), there were no major wars in falls of 2014 or 2015, iirc.

I think that the lack of war in fall 2014 can be more accurately explained by the sheer length of the Coalition War, which only ended with the surrender of Harmless some time over the summer of 2014. A major war would have been fairly futile in this circumstance; the Crowfed and their allies would have defeated any challengers with some ease. I suppose that is still really a Pax Crowana.

As for 2015, I would argue that the wars in BL fought against SIN (VIC and Shark, with Pico featuring prominently, in particular) count, although one could probably argue that they occurred a little too late in the year (if one considers the war as a continuation of the Newlands War, however, it certainly counts). In terms of long-term influence and effect on the game, however, the war was an enormous landmark conflict. 

The thing that is worth bearing in mind is that both the Coalition War and the Consone War involved a lot of participants with a lot of war declarations; often, war was declared out of solidarity with an ally. My own alliance in the Coalition War had declared war on a variety of Grand Alliance members, but most of our operations involved EE, vCrow and Bane if I recall correctly. As such, the sheer volume of war declarations is potentially a slightly misleading way of demonstrating this trend, as it skews things in favour of when the Consone and Coalition Wars started- both in late summer/autumn. That having been said, it's certainly an interesting analysis!


Posted By: Stukahh
Date Posted: 15 Oct 2017 at 19:00
In my Illyriad tenure I have been involved in over 40 war declarations.  Most of them my alliance pressing the button.  War in this game for the most part highly correlated to how bored NC or SIN has been in the last 5 years.  

There is no mystic force or seasonality.  SIN / NC has instigated every major war since the Consone war (we were a part of that, but not the cause).

We generally avoid summer wars.  We don't like war to interfere with our prime beer drinking months.

There ya have it.  The illyriad war cycle mystery solved.

Stukahh


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I don't always drink. But when I do, I prefer the blood of my enemies.


Posted By: Ten Kulch
Date Posted: 15 Oct 2017 at 19:01
Respectfully, you guys are talking about different things. Stormcrow's graph appears to show 5000-6000 war declarations. The players here are discussing the 50-100 significant war declarations in the past five years. Yes, those wars were between major opponents and changed the course of the game, but by volume alone they are only 1% of that graph.

The bigger question is, what comprises the other 99% of that graph? (Although I might be inclined to first wonder at the accuracy of those numbers.) I would assume a large number of those declarations fall into a few catogories:
  1. Practice wars between friendly opponents.
  2. Alliances like LOST that enjoy declaring on every alliance under the sun.
  3. Little one player alliances declaring on their one player alt alliance, to test game mechanics or goof around.
  4. Players drinking too many pints and then declaring on their friends for giggles.

If these numbers are correct, there is no way the real community saw 40-50 real wars per month for the past five years. Each server war might have had 100 valid declarations, and most recent major wars had 1-3 declarations.

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Check out my blog, http://illywarmonger.blogspot.com" rel="nofollow - Warmongering in Illyriad for self-defense techniques, military city construction, and PvP strategies.


Posted By: Rill
Date Posted: 15 Oct 2017 at 21:08
Noki, I wasn't sure on the timing of the Shark/VIC conflict.  I would consider that "major" in terms of game implications at least, although one of the implications was that others didn't join, different than past trends.  So 2015 Newlands war followed by Shark/VIC could maybe be considered a continuation of the trend.

I used the term Pax Crowana in a tongue in cheek way.  I agree with your assessment that the lack of war in 2015 was because of the sheer length and destruction of the conflict in 2013-2014, which was all over but the treaties by April, but technically dragged into June, again based on my recollections.


Posted By: Whakomatic
Date Posted: 02 Nov 2017 at 08:34
SC-

The total # of war declarations does seem rather large. Is your system counting # of accounts at war in that time period? That would be my first guess for numbers at that scale...


Posted By: eowan the short
Date Posted: 02 Nov 2017 at 12:40
Judging by his comment that the wars declared on the devs made up 41 of the total, it seems each declaration counts as a single one. 



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