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An Experiment with Multiple Blockades

Printed From: Illyriad
Category: Strategies, Guides & Help
Forum Name: Strategies, Tips & Tricks
Forum Description: Player created guides and advice.
URL: http://forum.illyriad.co.uk/forum_posts.asp?TID=10703
Printed Date: 04 Aug 2020 at 09:21
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Topic: An Experiment with Multiple Blockades
Posted By: Mafro
Subject: An Experiment with Multiple Blockades
Date Posted: 11 Nov 2019 at 23:29
I was curious how blockades from different players and different cities might interact. So, I ran a little test and am sharing the results!

The Theory
Specifically, I was curious whether each blockade is tested in turn, and if so if they are tested in the order that they landed. So, if Blockade 1 lands before Blockade 2, then more blocked caravans would be sent to Blockade 1 than Blockade 2. If that's not the case, then it's unlikely blockades are checked in the order that they landed.

The Methodology
I had blockades from two cities, A and C, on a single city at the same time. A blockade from A landed first, followed shortly thereafter by a blockade from C. I then sent 30 separate caravans to the blockaded city, 1 caravan per order, and recorded the results.



The Results
Here's what happened to the 30 caravans:
  • 24 were blocked by A
  • 4 were blocked by C
  • 2 made it through unblocked


Now according to the Break Trade Embargo technology, which was in place, the caravans should have had a 30% chance to reach their destination. With one blockade, that would mean on average 9 of the 30 would get through. With a second blockade, checked separately, 30% of the 9 would get through, which would be between 2 and 3. As 2 got through, this seems to validate that each blockade is checked separately.

Now, 21 should have gotten through the first blockade, while only 6 or 7 should have gotten through the second blockade. This corresponds fairly closely to what we see, with A getting 24 blocks and C getting only 4.

The Conclusion
So, I conclude that it's likely that blockades are checked separately, and likely in the order that they landed.

The Caveat
However, there's a caveat. Blockade A was launched before Blockade C, so it's possible that the order is based on the time that they were launched, not the time that they landed. A further experiment could likely sort that out.

Thanks to Kojootti for helping with this test, and thanks for reading!



Replies:
Posted By: Mafro
Date Posted: 12 Nov 2019 at 00:23
Addendum: a follow-up test sending caravans from the blockaded city produced the same result.


Posted By: Hiei
Date Posted: 12 Nov 2019 at 00:34
Very good experiment Mafro. Good work!

Kind Regards,

Toki/Hiei



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