Someone please help me understand where I'm wrong.

1299 adult crawlers (infantry, 21 vs cavalry),

223 spitting crawlers (ranged, 32 vs cavalry) and

172 crawler queens (cavalry, 42 vs cavalry).

The battle took place on plains (jungle), therefore only the crawler queens should receive a defence modifier of 25%, since infantry and ranged receive neither bonus nor malus when defending on plains.

Thus, the combined defence vs cavalry of the crawlers must be:

1299 x 21 = 27279

223 x 32 = 5129

172 x 42 + 25% = 9030

5 knight commanders, all with level 10 heroism and level 15 charge, all equipped with plainsman's platemail and boar spears. Their home city has a level 20 jungle warfare college.

61 knights, deployed in divisions of 57+1+1+1+1. No equipment.

Commanders: 5 x 3965 + [30% (cavalry attack on plains) + 20% (jungle college) + 2 x 60% (double equipment bonus for plainsman's platemail because of elite division) + 180% (boar spear; no double equipment bonus because vs animals fetaure is buggy) + 15% (charge)] = 14825 + 365% = 92186,25

Knights: 61 x 65 + [30% + 20% + 15%] = 3965 + 65% = 6542,25

Calculating the result:

41438 x 100 / 98728,5 = 42% projected casualty ratio for my army.

But in truth, my casualty ratio was 48%. That's a discrepancy of 14%. What am I doing wrong?

Iirc, the issue arose as a result of the devs not buffing them after equipment in general got buffed a few years back. While their card shows +180%, it's at the pre-buff level of 32%. It should work with elites.

That sounds plausible, but it doesn't add up. A bonus of 2 x 32% (instead of 1 x 180%) would result in 55% casualties, not 48%.

Maybe boar spears were buffed after all, but just not to 180%. Indeed, by assuming that boar spears give a 60% bonus, the formula gives a projected casualty ratio of 47.72%.

Timrath wrote: 14825

That's a typo. It should read 19825, but the result is correct. The actual calculation was based on 19825.