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My math doesn't add up (battle calculation)

Printed From: Illyriad
Category: Miscellaneous
Forum Name: The Caravanserai
Forum Description: A place to just chat about whatever takes your fancy, whether it's about Illyriad or not.
Printed Date: 13 Aug 2020 at 13:03
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Topic: My math doesn't add up (battle calculation)
Posted By: Timrath
Subject: My math doesn't add up (battle calculation)
Date Posted: 19 May 2019 at 22:12
Someone please help me understand where I'm wrong.

I attacked a mob of poisonous crawlers, consisting of:
1299 adult crawlers (infantry, 21 vs cavalry),
223 spitting crawlers (ranged, 32 vs cavalry) and
172 crawler queens (cavalry, 42 vs cavalry).
The battle took place on plains (jungle), therefore only the crawler queens should receive a defence modifier of 25%, since infantry and ranged receive neither bonus nor malus when defending on plains.

Thus, the combined defence vs cavalry of the crawlers must be:
1299 x 21 = 27279
223 x 32 = 5129
172 x 42 + 25% = 9030
Total: 41438

My forces consisted of:
5 knight commanders, all with level 10 heroism and level 15 charge, all equipped with plainsman's platemail and boar spears. Their home city has a level 20 jungle warfare college.
61 knights, deployed in divisions of 57+1+1+1+1. No equipment.

Commanders: 5 x 3965 + [30% (cavalry attack on plains) + 20% (jungle college) + 2 x 60% (double equipment bonus for plainsman's platemail because of elite division) + 180% (boar spear; no double equipment bonus because vs animals fetaure is buggy) + 15% (charge)] = 14825 + 365% = 92186,25
Knights: 61 x 65 + [30% + 20% + 15%] = 3965 + 65% = 6542,25
Total: 98728,5

Calculating the result:
41438 x 100 / 98728,5 = 42% projected casualty ratio for my army.
But in truth, my casualty ratio was 48%. That's a discrepancy of 14%. What am I doing wrong?

Posted By: eowan the short
Date Posted: 20 May 2019 at 01:22
I think you're accounting for the boar spear problem incorrectly.

Iirc, the issue arose as a result of the devs not buffing them after equipment in general got buffed a few years back. While their card shows +180%, it's at the pre-buff level of 32%. It should work with elites.

This is the thread that never ends, yes it goes on and on my friend. Some person started it, not knowing what it was, and we'll continue posting on it forever just because...

Posted By: Timrath
Date Posted: 20 May 2019 at 01:53
That sounds plausible, but it doesn't add up. A bonus of 2 x 32% (instead of 1 x 180%) would result in 55% casualties, not 48%.
Maybe boar spears were buffed after all, but just not to 180%. Indeed, by assuming that boar spears give a 60% bonus, the formula gives a projected casualty ratio of 47.72%.

Posted By: Timrath
Date Posted: 20 May 2019 at 01:55
Originally posted by Timrath Timrath wrote:


That's a typo. It should read 19825, but the result is correct. The actual calculation was based on 19825.

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