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TCol vs. Aesir War Stats

Printed From: Illyriad
Category: The World
Forum Name: Politics & Diplomacy
Forum Description: If you run an alliance on Elgea, here's where you should make your intentions public.
URL: http://forum.illyriad.co.uk/forum_posts.asp?TID=10387
Printed Date: 20 Oct 2018 at 22:22
Software Version: Web Wiz Forums 11.10 - http://www.webwizforums.com


Topic: TCol vs. Aesir War Stats
Posted By: Mafro
Subject: TCol vs. Aesir War Stats
Date Posted: 18 Jan 2018 at 17:08
Day 0. Zenorra stated in GC that Aesir must move 500 tiles away from Mal Motsha or she would help them move. Furthermore she posted a message showing one of Aesir's cities being razed and stating that "more would follow". While no official declaration of war has been made, and it's entirely possible this was simply puffery for the masses, I have created a baseline of war stats in the event Zenorra follows through.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1ZYuqMOvY82sw_PYycyx6JiAjzWL-sVVDCU_eGLnomX8/edit?usp=sharing" rel="nofollow - TCol vs. Aesir War Stats

[16:50]<Zenorra> Alessial, belonging to Kenyl which was located at 807|139 has been razed by walburne.
[16:50]<Zenorra> more to follow




Replies:
Posted By: Grom
Date Posted: 20 Jan 2018 at 01:37
Villa Nova, belonging to kacyk which was located at 582|188 has been razed by Grombrindal


Posted By: King Sigerius
Date Posted: 20 Jan 2018 at 03:22
Show Off :P


Posted By: Zenorra
Date Posted: 20 Jan 2018 at 13:55
He said "puffery". hehehehe!

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Posted By: Mafro
Date Posted: 23 Jan 2018 at 05:22
Day 4.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1ZYuqMOvY82sw_PYycyx6JiAjzWL-sVVDCU_eGLnomX8/edit?usp=sharing" rel="nofollow - TCol vs. Aesir War Stats


Posted By: Zenorra
Date Posted: 23 Jan 2018 at 14:14
I don't think these numbers are helpful. Aesir does more damage to themselves, which TCol can't take credit for.

Numbers mean nothing. Only thing that matters is who is willing to surrender first.

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Posted By: Mafro
Date Posted: 26 Jan 2018 at 06:33
Day 7.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1ZYuqMOvY82sw_PYycyx6JiAjzWL-sVVDCU_eGLnomX8/edit?usp=sharing" rel="nofollow - TCol vs. Aesir War Stats


Posted By: Grom
Date Posted: 28 Jan 2018 at 10:58
This serves absolutely no purpuse. We are currently 6-0 in razes, with a 4-0 forced exo rate. Those are the only numbers directly influenced by the hostilities. I will update them when changes occur.


Posted By: Mafro
Date Posted: 29 Jan 2018 at 04:56
Originally posted by Grom Grom wrote:

This serves absolutely no purpuse. We are currently 6-0 in razes, with a 4-0 forced exo rate. Those are the only numbers directly influenced by the hostilities. I will update them when changes occur.

Grom, I believe I understand your frustration. TCol has 4 fewer members and 28 fewer towns than when you began your action against Aesir. However, you view none of those losses as being directly influenced by the hostilities.

Perhaps they were indirectly influenced by the hostilities...members that chose to leave, or were kicked, so as not to be targeted...or perhaps their leaving truly had nothing to do with the war. All I know is that every alliance I've observed that has entered a war has had their member list trimmed down immediately thereafter. My guess is that it's the inactives getting kicked...or perhaps those closer to the front lines or less dedicated to the cause hitting the road.

I really can't say what it is in TCol's case...I can only report the stats.

Day 10.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1ZYuqMOvY82sw_PYycyx6JiAjzWL-sVVDCU_eGLnomX8/edit?usp=sharing" rel="nofollow - TCol vs. Aesir War Stats


Posted By: Grom
Date Posted: 29 Jan 2018 at 08:43
My point is simply that the stats,interesting though they me be, don't reflect what is happening on the field. For example. If one alliance has a 30 city account go over the 90 day threshold, while the other alliance gets a diplmatic visit from a friend with 20 cities, you suddenly have a 50 city gap in statistics. At a realistic raze rate it would take at least 15 weeks to offset just that one occurence.

So yes, your numbers do a good job in showing the natural flux in alliances, but don't reflect conflicts. You'd get roughly the same numbers if you'd compare two equally large alliances at peace. So for those interested in the actual military progress I will add our own numbers here, including only razes, forced exo's and perhaps siege breaks.

Please don't get me wrong though. I appreciate what you are trying to do. I just wanted to add to it for those who, like myself, have a different definition of war stats.


Posted By: Tensmoor
Date Posted: 29 Jan 2018 at 13:18
So if you were able to see where players came from/went to? That info is available by analysing successive days data files.

I have been thinking about sieges in general when I'm not woodworking/exercising/broadband problem chasing and there seems to be no data generally available apart from the GC Notifications/Herald Siege page and those only give you info about when they start not when/how they end. Whilst comparing the Herald page over time could give you an indication of when a siege ended I can see no method of being able to discern why it ended. Did the occupy time finish, were the troops recalled, did the target come out and break it, did outside forces come to the targets aid breaking the siege? Thing is, being a non-military player this sort of thing doesn't really rock my boat which means it would be quite low on my to do list - much more important is deciding if I should stay or go.


Posted By: Ten Kulch
Date Posted: 29 Jan 2018 at 15:20
I think much of the debate is because the commentary is focused on members and population. In early war, the roster does get cleaned of inactives and players wishing to avoid war.

By the mid-war, which is where the real fighting happens between active players, there might be a million troops lost fighting over a single city, which is insignificant in the population stats. The focus is on armies, which makes the defense and attack stats much more relevant than cities and population.

That gridlock usually breaks at the end stages of war. If the defending alliance is depleted of troops, suddenly the attacking alliance is able to siege at will. The number of sieges spikes, causing significant city and population losses. Surrenders begin to be processed (or players flee the losing alliance), leading to a shrinking roster and major city and population loss. Even so, the question is usually who is leaving, because many old alliances have inactives on the roster that can obscure more important departures.

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Check out my blog, http://illywarmonger.blogspot.com" rel="nofollow - Warmongering in Illyriad for self-defense techniques, military city construction, and PvP strategies.


Posted By: Mafro
Date Posted: 29 Jan 2018 at 16:56
A lot of good points made here.

To Grom's point that the data fluctuates, I totally agree. You need multiple data points over a period of time in order to gain confidence in whatever trend is taking place. Any given data point is fairly limited, especially if looking only at members, towns, or population, without taking into account elements such as Attack and Defense.

And that brings up TK's point, that different numbers move at different points of the war. In the RE-IRON conflict, we just saw a significant battle reflected in those numbers, though it remains to be seen if this is a tipping point in the war or along a front that can be exploited to destroy the means of production (i.e. towns).

That said, all this data is being posted publicly, so any and all are able and welcome to draw their own conclusions, and share them if they wish. If we have insights from the participants, even better, though we all realize that such insights carry with them basic cognitive bias, the baggage we all carry.


Posted By: Ten Kulch
Date Posted: 29 Jan 2018 at 18:58
If wars could be told with only numbers, there would be no need for historians. Even so, many key events will be forever buried beneath the fog of war. Did the raze of dittobite really affect vCrow's morale enough to inspire their surrender to fCrow? Perhaps the last straw was the battle where Tinkinator's war wagon survived the final onslaught by Ryklaw. Or was vCrow just weary of war, recognized that they could no longer stop razes, and that battle just happened to be an acceptable stopping point? We can spin stories about events, and interpret which ones were significant, but many times the real information is simply lost forever.

Case in point: within the Allied countries, it is a commonly accepted narrative that the atomic bomb ended Japanese resistance in WWII. More recent research points to the idea that the Japanese hoped to have the Soviets intercede to help them achieve less punitive surrender negotiations. When the Soviets declared war to force an end to hostilities, the emperor recognized that their last hope for a graceful exit had been cut off, and Japan quickly surrendered. Those events have been chronicled and studied by professional scholars for 70 years, and we still aren't exactly sure what happened. The truth just vanished into the fog of war.

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Check out my blog, http://illywarmonger.blogspot.com" rel="nofollow - Warmongering in Illyriad for self-defense techniques, military city construction, and PvP strategies.


Posted By: Tensmoor
Date Posted: 29 Jan 2018 at 19:40
Very true TK.

What must also be taken into account is that all forms of communication have varying amounts of misunderstanding almost built into them. Two people reading exactly the same text can (and do) understand different things. So given people from different countries, backgrounds and with differing experiences it is only to be expected that differing conclusions will be drawn.


Posted By: Dabrelis
Date Posted: 29 Jan 2018 at 20:40
That is fair enough.

However as a neutral newb observer to your art of war I can say that without Mafro’s work I would be even oblivious that war actually IS happening. We lack bards here in Illyriad singing their praises to war heroes and mourning losses for the razed cities.
Some of this happens on gc, but gets buried under “what you eatin?’“. I believe lot of it happens in alliance chats, but I don’t see them.

So, we have some numbers posted and I am glad for at least that..


Posted By: Zenorra
Date Posted: 29 Jan 2018 at 23:19
I'm 100% sure that what I read was offensive, to anyone, anywhere. Oops, except the person who wrote it.

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Posted By: Mafro
Date Posted: 01 Feb 2018 at 02:17
Day 13. Looks like some mighty battles were had in the past 24 hours. TCol's Defense score has increased by 610k while Aesir's Attack score has increased by 760k. Based on the stats page it appears those most heavily involved were Thranduril, Golradir, and Mes-kalam-dug on TCol's side, G0DsDestroyer, Relden, and Trixon on Aesir's side.

Insights from those in the know are welcome!

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1ZYuqMOvY82sw_PYycyx6JiAjzWL-sVVDCU_eGLnomX8/edit?usp=sharing" rel="nofollow - TCol vs. Aesir War Stats


Posted By: Grom
Date Posted: 01 Feb 2018 at 10:51
2 sieges were conducted against Aesir in Ragalon. One resulted in a raze roughly 15 minutes after start of bombardment and was only lightly contested. The other siege was heavily contested and ultimately broken (only the block remains) by a combined effort of Aesir members with help from a confed alliance.


Posted By: Mafro
Date Posted: 01 Feb 2018 at 12:41
Originally posted by Grom Grom wrote:

The other siege was heavily contested and ultimately broken (only the block remains) by a combined effort of Aesir members with help from a confed alliance.

A confed alliance? May I ask who? Also, should we treat this conflict as having merged with the greater Grand Alliance SIN war?


Posted By: Grom
Date Posted: 01 Feb 2018 at 13:56
Originally posted by Mafro Mafro wrote:

Originally posted by Grom Grom wrote:

The other siege was heavily contested and ultimately broken (only the block remains) by a combined effort of Aesir members with help from a confed alliance.


A confed alliance? May I ask who? Also, should we treat this conflict as having merged with the greater Grand Alliance SIN war?


No. I have had contact with the intervening alliance and have received a guarantee that they will no longer involve themselves with the Tcol/Aesir conflict. I feel that naming them here would go against the spirit of the talks we held.


Posted By: OssianII
Date Posted: 02 Feb 2018 at 16:20
Originally posted by Grom Grom wrote:

Originally posted by Mafro Mafro wrote:

Originally posted by Grom Grom wrote:

The other siege was heavily contested and ultimately broken (only the block remains) by a combined effort of Aesir members with help from a confed alliance.


A confed alliance? May I ask who? Also, should we treat this conflict as having merged with the greater Grand Alliance SIN war?


No. I have had contact with the intervening alliance and have received a guarantee that they will no longer involve themselves with the Tcol/Aesir conflict. I feel that naming them here would go against the spirit of the talks we held.

Don't tell them Grom! Ermm




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"The dwarves of yore made mighty spells,
While hammers fells like ringing bells
In places deep, where dark things sleep,
In hollow halls beneath the fells." ~ J R R Tolkien


Posted By: Grom
Date Posted: 03 Feb 2018 at 14:23
Currently at 8 razes and 9 forced exo, with a temporary siege break against. Raze stat includes one town of Biff (Senpai) which was in Aesir when the siege was launched, but not when it was razed, and which was placed solely to hamper another siege.


Posted By: Ten Kulch
Date Posted: 03 Feb 2018 at 18:39
Grom, can you break out the players/cities for the public record? Just the razed or captured cities.

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Check out my blog, http://illywarmonger.blogspot.com" rel="nofollow - Warmongering in Illyriad for self-defense techniques, military city construction, and PvP strategies.


Posted By: Grom
Date Posted: 03 Feb 2018 at 19:29
Originally posted by Ten Kulch Ten Kulch wrote:

Grom, can you break out the players/cities for the public record? Just the razed or captured cities.

Seranil (808,146) belonging to Kenyl razed by Walburne on 01/18/2018
Alessial (807,139) belonging to Kenyl razed by Walburne on 01/18/2018
Villa Nova (582,188) belonging to Kacyk razed by Grombrindal on 01/19/2018
Bujumbura (457,276) belonging to Hucbold razed by Team on 01/23/2018
TCol are Sindicate (457,277) belonging to Senpai razed by Team on 01/23/2018
Silver Pine (444,248) belonging to Mendak razed by Team on 01/25/2018
Decide's Karag de Relden (497,288) belonging to Relden razed by Team on 01/31/2018
Alqualonde (376,274) belonging to Relden razed by Team on 02/02/2018

There you go.


Posted By: Ten Kulch
Date Posted: 03 Feb 2018 at 19:47
Much obliged. These things are best conducted with transparency.

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Check out my blog, http://illywarmonger.blogspot.com" rel="nofollow - Warmongering in Illyriad for self-defense techniques, military city construction, and PvP strategies.


Posted By: Tensmoor
Date Posted: 03 Feb 2018 at 19:52
Having problems with my internet which is holding up trying to get the siege database working.


Posted By: Mafro
Date Posted: 06 Feb 2018 at 05:20
Day 18. In the past 5 days, since my last post:
  • TCol has gained 1 town, 46k pop, 350k Attack, & 405k Defense
  • Aesir has gained 1 member, 6 towns, 10k pop, 1650k Attack, & 240k Defense
Incidentally, in that same time TCol has also gained 43 million Magic...anyone know what that's all about? I'm not sure how Magic points accumulate....

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1ZYuqMOvY82sw_PYycyx6JiAjzWL-sVVDCU_eGLnomX8/edit?usp=sharing" rel="nofollow - TCol vs. Aesir War Stats


Posted By: Ten Kulch
Date Posted: 06 Feb 2018 at 05:32
Your magic score goes up as a result of adding extra mana to geomancy and blight spells. This is done to increase the spell power (extra mana * mage tower level * (1+moon bonus)), which makes the magic harder to dispel or overturn.

Most likely the increase was a result of defeating a food geomancy on an enemy city, and then holding a -6% sharp frost blight in place during a siege. Negative food during a siege can cause population collapse if stored food reaches zero (often the result of a clearing attack or large thief strike).

Alternately, the magic score boost might have been the result of a magical clash between two players, although that should cause a score increase for both sides. It could also just be a player boosting their magic score to increase player rank.

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Check out my blog, http://illywarmonger.blogspot.com" rel="nofollow - Warmongering in Illyriad for self-defense techniques, military city construction, and PvP strategies.


Posted By: Mafro
Date Posted: 06 Feb 2018 at 06:00
Originally posted by Ten Kulch Ten Kulch wrote:

Your magic score goes up as a result of adding extra mana to geomancy and blight spells. This is done to increase the spell power (extra mana * mage tower level * (1+moon bonus)), which makes the magic harder to dispel or overturn.

Interesting...does that mean geomancy (and blight) spells cast during the full moon are harder to dispel? Or  is it only that adding mana is more effective during that time?


Posted By: Ten Kulch
Date Posted: 06 Feb 2018 at 16:08
There is a very minor base spell power (since it costs a few mana to cast any spell). In most cases of magical combat, the extra mana drowns out the base mana by a huge margin. Since both sides have the same moon phase, that is also not a major factor in magical clashes. Overall, yes, the only thing the full moon effects is spell power and casting distance. If you aren't adding mana, the moon phase is largely irrelevant.

My sentence in the post above was probably constructed badly. Allow me to rephrase.

[Adding extra mana] is done to increase the spell power, which makes the magic harder to dispel or overturn. Spell power is calculated as ((base mana + extra mana) * mage tower level * (1+moon bonus)).

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Check out my blog, http://illywarmonger.blogspot.com" rel="nofollow - Warmongering in Illyriad for self-defense techniques, military city construction, and PvP strategies.


Posted By: Neytiri
Date Posted: 09 Feb 2018 at 21:11
Doesn't your magic score also go up if you get thieved and have to re-cast your defensive rune?
Or, if you level up a runemaster and then re-cast your rune to take advantage of the higher level?


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"It is well that their bodies know the heat and the cold; it will make them strong warriors and mothers." - Absaroke elder (from Edward S. Curtis's book 'The North American Indian')


Posted By: Ten Kulch
Date Posted: 10 Feb 2018 at 00:48
The amount of mana required to cast a rune is tiny compared to adding extra mana to a geomancy or blight.

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Check out my blog, http://illywarmonger.blogspot.com" rel="nofollow - Warmongering in Illyriad for self-defense techniques, military city construction, and PvP strategies.



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