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My math doesn't add up (battle calculation)

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Timrath View Drop Down
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    Posted: 19 May 2019 at 22:12
Someone please help me understand where I'm wrong.

I attacked a mob of poisonous crawlers, consisting of:
1299 adult crawlers (infantry, 21 vs cavalry),
223 spitting crawlers (ranged, 32 vs cavalry) and
172 crawler queens (cavalry, 42 vs cavalry).
The battle took place on plains (jungle), therefore only the crawler queens should receive a defence modifier of 25%, since infantry and ranged receive neither bonus nor malus when defending on plains.

Thus, the combined defence vs cavalry of the crawlers must be:
1299 x 21 = 27279
223 x 32 = 5129
172 x 42 + 25% = 9030
Total: 41438


My forces consisted of:
5 knight commanders, all with level 10 heroism and level 15 charge, all equipped with plainsman's platemail and boar spears. Their home city has a level 20 jungle warfare college.
61 knights, deployed in divisions of 57+1+1+1+1. No equipment.

Commanders: 5 x 3965 + [30% (cavalry attack on plains) + 20% (jungle college) + 2 x 60% (double equipment bonus for plainsman's platemail because of elite division) + 180% (boar spear; no double equipment bonus because vs animals fetaure is buggy) + 15% (charge)] = 14825 + 365% = 92186,25
Knights: 61 x 65 + [30% + 20% + 15%] = 3965 + 65% = 6542,25
Total: 98728,5


Calculating the result:
41438 x 100 / 98728,5 = 42% projected casualty ratio for my army.
But in truth, my casualty ratio was 48%. That's a discrepancy of 14%. What am I doing wrong?




Edited by Timrath - 19 May 2019 at 22:14
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eowan the short View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote eowan the short Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 20 May 2019 at 01:22
I think you're accounting for the boar spear problem incorrectly.

Iirc, the issue arose as a result of the devs not buffing them after equipment in general got buffed a few years back. While their card shows +180%, it's at the pre-buff level of 32%. It should work with elites.




Edited by eowan the short - 20 May 2019 at 01:23
This is the thread that never ends, yes it goes on and on my friend. Some person started it, not knowing what it was, and we'll continue posting on it forever just because...
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Timrath View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Timrath Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 20 May 2019 at 01:53
That sounds plausible, but it doesn't add up. A bonus of 2 x 32% (instead of 1 x 180%) would result in 55% casualties, not 48%.
Maybe boar spears were buffed after all, but just not to 180%. Indeed, by assuming that boar spears give a 60% bonus, the formula gives a projected casualty ratio of 47.72%.
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Timrath View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Timrath Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 20 May 2019 at 01:55
Originally posted by Timrath Timrath wrote:

14825

That's a typo. It should read 19825, but the result is correct. The actual calculation was based on 19825.
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